Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Oct9.9743.0970.5634.90243.538
Oct-Nov15.7725.2511.1309.13756.511
Oct-Dec20.1506.3371.42313.47361.919

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.86441.643
2011.12232.436
309.40826.603
408.16321.435
507.09417.289
606.23113.352
705.42210.221
804.5767.358
903.4714.546

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
123.38465.392
220.46357.811
318.83554.837
417.28852.389
516.45150.574
615.77248.044
715.11846.260
814.69244.586
914.26742.909
1013.86441.643
1113.50040.588
1213.15539.417
1312.81738.524
1412.53537.625
1512.27536.631
1612.07135.837
1711.84134.906
1811.60233.951
1911.34233.105
2011.12232.436
2110.90131.786
2210.66331.060
2310.48730.550
2410.29529.803
2510.12029.334
269.99528.928
279.82128.308
289.69027.815
299.55227.239
309.40826.603
319.26926.020
329.10825.425
338.98624.955
348.87024.490
358.74323.850
368.60623.337
378.48522.825
388.38422.346
398.25321.953
408.16321.435
418.04620.934
427.91320.562
437.80720.249
447.71419.819
457.61619.432
467.49118.999
477.40118.606
487.30018.094
497.19817.707
507.09417.289
517.00616.910
526.90616.532
536.81216.090
546.71715.669
556.63515.243
566.55914.728
576.47214.425
586.38914.121
596.31113.787
606.23113.352
616.12712.920
626.03712.606
635.97312.315
645.87611.960
655.80311.684
665.73711.405
675.66311.145
685.58910.809
695.50610.466
705.42210.221
715.3179.888
725.2389.623
735.1699.316
745.1019.043
755.0088.743
764.9168.478
774.8428.191
784.7537.929
794.6657.681
804.5767.358
814.4917.059
824.3846.777
834.2716.462
844.1676.201
854.0675.978
863.9475.680
873.8415.379
883.7395.139
893.6024.856
903.4714.546
913.3614.263
923.2293.935
933.0523.593
942.9183.188
952.7332.905
962.5572.588
972.2852.141
982.0031.771
991.6701.359


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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