Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
Nov5.9319.9433.7150.3444.0439.404
Nov-Dec10.43017.7606.3230.4978.30317.693
Nov-Jan13.47120.8557.6450.5879.65545.086

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.58127.737
2011.37720.765
309.52516.577
408.04313.070
506.79910.406
605.7657.989
704.7826.122
803.7914.431
902.7032.743

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
124.13846.610
221.74940.522
319.89638.144
418.49736.192
517.54734.750
616.98532.747
716.22531.342
815.61330.029
915.13328.720
1014.58127.737
1114.07326.921
1213.73126.020
1313.38825.337
1412.98424.651
1512.61423.897
1612.29423.298
1712.04122.598
1811.81021.886
1911.60421.258
2011.37720.765
2111.18520.288
2210.96919.757
2310.74819.387
2410.55518.848
2510.37918.510
2610.22718.220
2710.05017.778
289.86117.429
299.70417.023
309.52516.577
319.35516.171
329.16915.760
339.00415.436
348.87615.118
358.72814.683
368.59814.337
378.46913.993
388.33713.673
398.16213.412
408.04313.070
417.92712.741
427.80212.498
437.67212.294
447.50112.016
457.39411.766
467.23411.489
477.14211.238
487.00710.913
496.89210.669
506.79910.406
516.70810.169
526.6199.933
536.5189.659
546.4139.399
556.2919.138
566.2018.823
576.0928.639
586.0068.454
595.8748.252
605.7657.989
615.6677.729
625.5507.541
635.4387.367
645.3577.155
655.2626.991
665.1686.824
675.0656.670
684.9636.471
694.8736.267
704.7826.122
714.6875.926
724.5975.769
734.4715.588
744.3535.427
754.2745.250
764.1675.093
774.0844.924
783.9894.769
793.8924.622
803.7914.431
813.6974.253
823.6024.086
833.5303.898
843.4423.742
853.3393.609
863.2053.430
873.1063.248
882.9533.104
892.8002.932
902.7032.743
912.5542.568
922.4302.365
932.2802.152
942.0961.897
951.9681.717
961.7531.512
971.5421.219
981.3320.972
990.9660.689


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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