Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
Dec4.4997.8182.6080.1524.2608.289
Dec-Jan7.54010.9123.9300.2425.61235.683
Dec-Feb9.44214.5454.8850.3997.48841.821

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.22019.106
209.15913.423
307.87910.593
406.8728.451
506.0336.902
605.2565.513
704.5834.431
803.8343.401
902.9052.288

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
119.30745.524
216.83034.662
315.45131.092
414.61928.451
513.72126.567
613.01524.241
712.47122.702
811.94321.326
911.51420.033
1011.22019.106
1110.95518.364
1210.65417.576
1310.36016.990
1410.14916.411
159.96115.798
169.82215.328
179.65614.780
189.50514.238
199.32413.777
209.15913.423
219.02613.084
228.87212.699
238.72512.455
248.60812.083
258.49511.859
268.37011.667
278.24911.368
288.11211.135
297.98010.881
307.87910.593
317.80710.339
327.69510.074
337.5919.874
347.4599.687
357.3829.414
367.2649.209
377.1629.000
387.0578.811
396.9628.653
406.8728.451
416.7648.256
426.6678.115
436.5967.994
446.5017.833
456.4067.689
466.3307.525
476.2557.384
486.1687.196
496.0907.052
506.0336.902
515.9636.767
525.9076.634
535.8156.472
545.7386.329
555.6416.170
565.5525.997
575.4635.891
585.4005.783
595.3375.669
605.2565.513
615.1765.367
625.1165.259
635.0525.157
644.9775.037
654.9134.941
664.8514.844
674.7784.754
684.7104.637
694.6454.517
704.5834.431
714.5264.314
724.4374.220
734.3724.111
744.2974.014
754.2263.907
764.1443.811
774.0723.707
783.9943.612
793.9143.520
803.8343.401
813.7553.289
823.6773.182
833.5783.062
843.4942.961
853.4212.873
863.3182.756
873.2202.634
883.1132.537
893.0122.419
902.9052.288
912.7942.166
922.6772.021
932.5741.865
942.4251.674
952.2951.535
962.1601.374
971.9751.133
981.6920.920
991.3430.662


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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