Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Jan2.9783.0941.3220.0901.3513.094
Jan-Feb4.8396.7272.2770.2463.2276.727
Jan-Mar7.23637.8173.8190.4117.33637.817

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.48813.043
206.0499.074
305.1847.112
404.5535.634
504.0104.570
603.5403.621
703.1002.884
802.6202.187
902.0461.438

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
112.60831.777
210.82724.031
39.74921.497
49.21219.626
58.81118.294
68.47516.653
78.16415.569
87.90114.601
97.70713.693
107.48813.043
117.30712.523
127.11111.971
136.90911.562
146.72811.157
156.57610.729
166.48810.401
176.37810.019
186.2609.642
196.1659.321
206.0499.074
215.9808.839
225.8948.571
235.7988.402
245.6998.144
255.6047.989
265.5247.855
275.4227.648
285.3417.487
295.2397.311
305.1847.112
315.1246.936
325.0546.753
334.9916.615
344.9186.485
354.8396.298
364.7836.156
374.7296.012
384.6645.882
394.6055.773
404.5535.634
414.5015.500
424.4445.403
434.3825.319
444.3335.209
454.2795.110
464.2164.997
474.1684.901
484.1064.772
494.0574.673
504.0104.570
513.9604.478
523.9034.387
533.8694.276
543.8254.178
553.7674.069
563.7243.951
573.6833.879
583.6323.805
593.5843.727
603.5403.621
613.4983.521
623.4523.448
633.4033.378
643.3503.296
653.3053.231
663.2583.165
673.2183.104
683.1793.024
693.1472.943
703.1002.884
713.0612.805
723.0082.742
732.9602.668
742.9192.602
752.8612.529
762.8082.464
772.7742.394
782.7272.330
792.6752.268
802.6202.187
812.5622.111
822.5022.040
832.4481.958
842.3921.890
852.3431.831
862.2911.752
872.2271.671
882.1741.605
892.1141.526
902.0461.438
911.9911.356
921.9111.259
931.8181.155
941.7251.028
951.6220.935
961.5200.828
971.4010.669
981.1970.528
990.9650.357


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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