Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1989) (GL)
Apr2.5554.2791.3950.6261.40415.202
Apr-May5.9078.6873.2531.3673.18925.489
Apr-Jun11.65713.1366.7392.7845.86441.853

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1019.01721.415
2015.01815.869
3012.57313.020
4010.76010.812
509.2529.181
607.9517.686
706.7176.498
805.4795.341
904.0014.056

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
133.82445.433
228.99535.820
326.55332.591
424.39730.176
523.05728.439
621.93326.275
721.13424.832
820.17423.532
919.54522.302
1019.01721.415
1118.51020.703
1217.89919.942
1317.47419.374
1417.00818.811
1516.65118.212
1616.30517.752
1715.96617.213
1815.66216.678
1915.37516.221
2015.01815.869
2114.67615.531
2214.42215.147
2314.19214.903
2413.91514.529
2513.69414.304
2613.44314.109
2713.18713.807
2812.95813.571
2912.79713.313
3012.57313.020
3112.35612.760
3212.18612.490
3312.01812.284
3411.81212.092
3511.60911.811
3611.47011.599
3711.28411.383
3811.09411.187
3910.91411.023
4010.76010.812
4110.60810.608
4210.41410.461
4310.25810.334
4410.10810.165
459.96910.013
469.8539.840
479.6849.691
489.5239.493
499.4059.340
509.2529.181
519.1279.036
528.9808.895
538.8298.722
548.7088.568
558.5678.398
568.4698.211
578.3358.096
588.2097.979
598.0847.856
607.9517.686
617.8487.527
627.7417.410
637.6327.299
647.4947.166
657.3657.062
667.2296.955
677.0766.855
686.9556.726
696.8546.593
706.7176.498
716.5956.368
726.4876.264
736.3636.142
746.2356.033
756.1025.913
765.9945.805
775.8755.688
785.7555.580
795.6145.477
805.4795.341
815.3785.213
825.2675.092
835.1134.954
844.9784.838
854.8224.737
864.6914.601
874.5624.460
884.3734.346
894.1844.209
904.0014.056
913.7923.911
923.6513.739
933.4783.554
943.2603.324
953.0193.157
962.8092.960
972.5522.665
982.1592.400
991.6322.073


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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