Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1995) (GL)
May3.3524.4081.8581.2201.7855.556
May-Jun9.1028.8575.3432.5884.46014.600
May-Jul21.02615.90810.1964.30110.27054.259

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.24940.049
2027.38730.938
3022.54225.537
4018.98421.004
5016.03017.511
6013.66114.252
7011.48511.633
809.0999.139
906.3786.468

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
162.96565.532
254.46057.214
349.27353.983
445.42451.344
542.88549.400
640.96846.712
739.31444.833
837.82243.085
936.48641.348
1035.24940.049
1133.91338.973
1233.08937.788
1332.36036.891
1431.45835.993
1530.78135.008
1630.09434.227
1729.36333.316
1828.74332.391
1928.05131.578
2027.38730.938
2126.81030.321
2226.25829.636
2325.58729.158
2425.08928.462
2524.55828.027
2624.15727.653
2723.68527.084
2823.30226.633
2922.98026.110
3022.54225.537
3122.19425.013
3221.79224.483
3321.50024.066
3421.17723.656
3520.83223.094
3620.55922.647
3720.12322.202
3819.78121.788
3919.40021.449
4018.98421.004
4118.62020.576
4218.30620.260
4317.97719.994
4417.71219.630
4517.38219.304
4617.05318.940
4716.82018.610
4816.52618.182
4916.31717.859
5016.03017.511
5115.74917.196
5215.52316.882
5315.25316.516
5415.01716.168
5514.77315.815
5614.56415.390
5714.32915.140
5814.13514.888
5913.86214.612
6013.66114.252
6113.47413.894
6213.28613.634
6313.05013.392
6412.85113.095
6512.62312.866
6612.37312.632
6712.16212.414
6811.91212.131
6911.69411.841
7011.48511.633
7111.18411.350
7210.92911.124
7310.72810.860
7410.44110.625
7510.15910.365
769.98910.133
779.7449.881
789.5059.650
799.2999.428
809.0999.139
818.8498.868
828.6128.611
838.3428.320
848.0648.077
857.7997.867
867.4557.584
877.1857.293
886.9427.060
896.6796.779
906.3786.468
916.1306.178
925.7685.836
935.3485.470
945.0575.025
954.7004.704
964.2664.333
973.5173.788
982.9793.312
992.2202.745


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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