Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Product list for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jul11.9247.0514.8521.7135.81028.379
Jul-Aug26.02314.90811.0263.10113.50760.112
Jul-Sep38.93419.81917.2744.10620.71591.920

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1060.50270.339
2048.13058.024
3040.45649.983
4034.61942.529
5029.84936.149
6025.69929.542
7021.77223.710
8017.37717.766
9012.61611.268

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
198.844101.503
287.22391.587
379.72487.692
475.27684.484
571.62682.103
668.43378.780
766.21776.433
863.83674.228
962.14872.014
1060.50270.339
1158.83768.941
1256.68567.386
1355.36066.199
1454.02365.000
1552.77563.672
1651.61462.610
1750.57861.359
1849.66560.073
1948.90458.931
2048.13058.024
2147.38057.141
2246.55056.151
2345.74955.454
2444.94854.429
2543.99353.783
2643.29753.223
2742.58552.364
2841.99051.678
2941.14150.875
3040.45649.983
3139.74349.161
3239.12748.319
3338.40747.649
3437.82346.984
3537.26746.064
3636.78945.323
3736.17544.577
3835.64343.876
3935.10443.296
4034.61942.529
4134.02241.781
4233.50341.222
4333.05240.749
4432.59440.096
4532.03839.504
4631.66438.837
4731.27438.227
4830.76237.426
4930.28036.814
5029.84936.149
5129.47535.540
5229.06634.928
5328.59134.205
5428.10833.510
5527.69332.799
5627.29031.929
5726.90631.412
5826.50930.887
5926.12630.307
6025.69929.542
6125.26928.773
6224.89428.208
6324.50427.678
6424.13227.024
6523.78426.513
6623.43625.989
6723.02025.497
6822.65424.854
6922.24724.190
7021.77223.710
7121.41623.052
7220.98222.523
7320.55521.901
7420.13021.343
7519.70020.724
7619.26420.170
7718.75819.564
7818.30119.005
7917.81818.469
8017.37717.766
8116.95017.105
8216.45416.477
8315.80415.765
8415.40515.171
8514.92614.656
8614.45913.966
8714.00813.258
8813.54012.691
8913.03212.014
9012.61611.268
9111.98210.578
9211.3559.773
9310.7038.928
949.9387.919
959.2957.210
968.4816.412
977.4895.284
986.2454.350
994.3543.311


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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