Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep12.9114.9116.2481.0057.20831.808
Sep-Oct23.0419.2549.3451.56812.44975.346
Sep-Nov28.92212.96911.4992.13516.74588.319

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1036.92056.665
2029.88144.814
3025.58437.299
4022.42530.606
5019.48425.178
6017.05919.927
7014.54915.639
8012.19311.583
909.2347.414

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
157.32887.288
251.19177.506
347.09273.669
444.79170.512
543.03468.172
641.64664.910
740.15362.611
838.62560.455
937.67958.295
1036.92056.665
1135.79855.306
1234.88453.799
1334.17852.649
1433.55251.492
1532.84350.212
1631.99949.191
1731.49947.992
1830.80846.763
1930.31145.675
2029.88144.814
2129.21043.978
2228.73243.042
2328.21842.386
2427.78841.424
2527.42640.819
2627.04540.297
2726.73339.498
2826.33038.861
2925.99138.119
3025.58437.299
3125.16536.545
3224.84235.777
3324.47435.169
3424.20234.568
3523.89133.740
3623.60133.076
3723.23932.411
3823.00431.790
3922.70431.279
4022.42530.606
4122.10529.953
4221.72529.469
4321.41529.060
4421.17328.498
4520.87827.993
4620.57427.426
4720.30826.911
4820.00726.238
4919.70225.729
5019.48425.178
5119.22424.678
5219.00024.177
5318.83823.592
5418.62823.032
5518.39722.465
5618.18721.778
5717.97321.372
5817.75520.963
5917.42220.515
6017.05919.927
6116.80919.343
6216.58618.918
6316.36018.521
6416.16918.036
6515.92017.660
6615.70817.276
6715.43516.919
6815.15416.454
6914.84615.979
7014.54915.639
7114.36315.175
7214.11714.805
7313.89414.373
7413.63113.989
7513.39213.565
7613.15213.189
7712.94012.780
7812.73912.405
7912.44812.048
8012.19311.583
8111.88711.150
8211.66010.740
8311.42810.278
8411.1209.895
8510.8159.564
8610.5439.123
8710.2438.672
889.9798.313
899.6317.885
909.2347.414
918.8946.980
928.4006.473
937.9045.941
947.5355.304
957.0604.854
966.5544.344
975.9023.615
985.3323.002
994.1882.304


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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