Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Product list for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Oct10.1304.3433.0970.5635.24143.538
Oct-Nov16.0118.0585.2511.1309.53756.511
Oct-Dec20.46610.6666.3371.42313.98061.919

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1020.46141.643
2016.73432.436
3014.45126.603
4012.62321.435
5011.11617.289
609.77613.352
708.66710.221
807.3967.358
905.7424.546

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
133.12265.392
229.19057.811
326.52854.837
425.01752.389
523.84150.574
622.99048.044
722.28646.260
821.64544.586
920.97942.909
1020.46141.643
1119.86240.588
1219.51339.417
1319.08138.524
1418.72537.625
1518.38236.631
1617.94635.837
1717.64134.906
1817.30733.951
1916.98033.105
2016.73432.436
2116.48231.786
2216.24531.060
2316.02430.550
2415.70329.803
2515.48029.334
2615.28328.928
2715.03428.308
2814.84227.815
2914.63327.239
3014.45126.603
3114.26426.020
3214.07925.425
3313.91224.955
3413.67524.490
3513.51123.850
3613.32023.337
3713.13022.825
3812.93622.346
3912.79921.953
4012.62321.435
4112.48120.934
4212.31520.562
4312.18220.249
4411.97919.819
4511.86319.432
4611.72118.999
4711.56118.606
4811.38918.094
4911.26017.707
5011.11617.289
5110.97716.910
5210.83116.532
5310.66216.090
5410.53415.669
5510.39115.243
5610.29014.728
5710.17114.425
5810.04514.121
599.90013.787
609.77613.352
619.66512.920
629.54012.606
639.42512.315
649.33111.960
659.23111.684
669.11511.405
679.00611.145
688.89210.809
698.77710.466
708.66710.221
718.5339.888
728.4449.623
738.2979.316
748.1819.043
758.0408.743
767.9328.478
777.7998.191
787.6487.929
797.5147.681
807.3967.358
817.2307.059
827.1136.777
836.9376.462
846.7846.201
856.6275.978
866.4555.680
876.2965.379
886.1225.139
895.9594.856
905.7424.546
915.5534.263
925.3653.935
935.1613.593
944.9443.188
954.6682.905
964.3992.588
974.0042.141
983.5491.771
993.0051.359


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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