Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1995) (GL)
May3.3191.8582.1001.2201.8975.556
May-Jun9.0175.34310.3882.5884.73814.600
May-Jul20.78110.19620.9164.30110.58854.259

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1041.88540.049
2033.06430.938
3027.32125.537
4023.21221.004
5019.69317.511
6016.86014.252
7014.30511.633
8011.3459.139
908.1196.468

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
173.37665.532
263.25057.214
357.50253.983
453.70351.344
550.42049.400
648.16946.712
746.58244.833
844.73243.085
943.15041.348
1041.88540.049
1140.47638.973
1239.45737.788
1338.47236.891
1437.55435.993
1536.81135.008
1635.92334.227
1735.36633.316
1834.51132.391
1933.70431.578
2033.06430.938
2132.35230.321
2231.50429.636
2330.94829.158
2430.36528.462
2529.75428.027
2629.25527.653
2728.81227.084
2828.31226.633
2927.77526.110
3027.32125.537
3126.87525.013
3226.51224.483
3326.06524.066
3425.73823.656
3525.36823.094
3625.02422.647
3724.64622.202
3824.15521.788
3923.67121.449
4023.21221.004
4122.78420.576
4222.38920.260
4322.05219.994
4421.65119.630
4521.31019.304
4620.99618.940
4720.71218.610
4820.31118.182
4919.96417.859
5019.69317.511
5119.44417.196
5219.05516.882
5318.74916.516
5418.44516.168
5518.20915.815
5617.91815.390
5717.68515.140
5817.40814.888
5917.18114.612
6016.86014.252
6116.62413.894
6216.42713.634
6316.20813.392
6415.92913.095
6515.59212.866
6615.34612.632
6715.13012.414
6814.82112.131
6914.52811.841
7014.30511.633
7113.95711.350
7213.65411.124
7313.33810.860
7413.03210.625
7512.72410.365
7612.45910.133
7712.2039.881
7811.8859.650
7911.6269.428
8011.3459.139
8111.0878.868
8210.7978.611
8310.4678.320
8410.1638.077
859.8437.867
869.4757.584
879.1707.293
888.7847.060
898.5376.779
908.1196.468
917.7446.178
927.3745.836
936.9185.470
946.4925.025
956.0174.704
965.5464.333
974.7593.788
984.0473.312
993.0562.745


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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