Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jun5.6983.4858.2881.3692.84116.469
Jun-Jul17.4628.33818.8163.0818.69045.301
Jun-Aug31.38514.51223.0264.46915.64676.210

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1046.86857.878
2038.04647.024
3032.17940.035
4027.54233.675
5023.57028.367
6020.33923.045
7017.16818.515
8013.92214.050
909.9219.262

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
176.22185.620
266.98576.776
361.19573.304
457.12070.446
554.81068.326
652.75465.370
751.00863.284
849.54161.326
948.23359.362
1046.86857.878
1145.87756.639
1244.73455.265
1343.81454.215
1442.85753.157
1541.80551.986
1640.90951.050
1740.20349.950
1839.44548.821
1938.76747.819
2038.04647.024
2137.22046.252
2236.59545.387
2335.82244.779
2435.25043.887
2534.81543.324
2634.31342.838
2733.80442.093
2833.22541.499
2932.65940.804
3032.17940.035
3131.79739.326
3231.32038.603
3330.92238.028
3430.51237.459
3529.84236.673
3629.28636.041
3728.80235.407
3828.35434.813
3928.05034.323
4027.54233.675
4127.13733.045
4226.77732.576
4326.30532.180
4425.87331.634
4525.57431.140
4625.16230.586
4724.69530.080
4824.31829.418
4923.86828.914
5023.57028.367
5123.27927.869
5222.94227.369
5322.61826.782
5422.25026.218
5521.90325.644
5621.62024.946
5721.29124.532
5821.00424.113
5920.62823.652
6020.33923.045
6119.98422.438
6219.69021.995
6319.37321.580
6419.13021.070
6518.80920.673
6618.46520.266
6718.17419.887
6817.83119.391
6917.52618.882
7017.16818.515
7116.84918.014
7216.52017.613
7316.21317.142
7415.82916.721
7515.54216.256
7615.19115.840
7714.80815.388
7814.48914.970
7914.22714.572
8013.92214.050
8113.56313.561
8213.21113.097
8312.81212.572
8412.41112.134
8512.09211.756
8611.68011.248
8711.29610.727
8810.90110.310
8910.4399.812
909.9219.262
919.5738.752
929.0138.154
938.4757.524
947.8896.765
957.4046.228
966.7345.617
975.9824.738
985.1453.996
993.6593.148


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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