Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1984) (GL)
Jan2.9451.0284.2790.0900.90027.393
Jan-Feb4.6483.23710.8200.2462.04633.532
Jan-Mar6.3124.96415.3030.4112.89236.985

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1020.62813.043
2017.1329.074
3015.1377.112
4013.3125.634
5011.8734.570
6010.5453.621
709.2822.884
807.9762.187
906.4601.438

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
132.71131.777
229.03624.031
326.81721.497
425.15119.626
524.08718.294
623.29316.653
722.35015.569
821.72914.601
921.18213.693
1020.62813.043
1120.18112.523
1219.76711.971
1319.35011.562
1419.01611.157
1518.68910.729
1618.34310.401
1718.03610.019
1817.7359.642
1917.4719.321
2017.1329.074
2116.9058.839
2216.6648.571
2316.4828.402
2416.2658.144
2516.0647.989
2615.8547.855
2715.6507.648
2815.4787.487
2915.2727.311
3015.1377.112
3114.9616.936
3214.7856.753
3314.5296.615
3414.3296.485
3514.1896.298
3613.9576.156
3713.8216.012
3813.6645.882
3913.5085.773
4013.3125.634
4113.1695.500
4213.0305.403
4312.8805.319
4412.7205.209
4512.5575.110
4612.4024.997
4712.2604.901
4812.1284.772
4911.9924.673
5011.8734.570
5111.7384.478
5211.5924.387
5311.4574.276
5411.3114.178
5511.1884.069
5611.0303.951
5710.8843.879
5810.7563.805
5910.6543.727
6010.5453.621
6110.4073.521
6210.2653.448
6310.1413.378
6410.0253.296
659.8933.231
669.7613.165
679.6383.104
689.4873.024
699.3722.943
709.2822.884
719.1692.805
729.0402.742
738.9182.668
748.7692.602
758.6562.529
768.5192.464
778.4022.394
788.2882.330
798.1332.268
807.9762.187
817.7842.111
827.6482.040
837.5211.958
847.3721.890
857.2191.831
867.0881.752
876.9501.671
886.8081.605
896.6251.526
906.4601.438
916.2741.356
926.0121.259
935.8031.155
945.5261.028
955.2880.935
965.0340.828
974.5560.669
984.1410.528
993.4660.357


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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