Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adjungbilly Creek at Darbalara ( Jan 2012 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1984) (GL)
Jan2.9764.2793.0940.0901.14027.393
Jan-Feb4.79410.8206.7270.2462.79933.532
Jan-Mar6.52415.30337.8170.4113.89336.985

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.53113.043
2012.8229.074
3011.2317.112
409.8965.634
508.8004.570
607.7903.621
706.8872.884
805.8832.187
904.7521.438

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
124.77331.777
221.96524.031
320.33521.497
419.03919.626
518.21118.294
617.56116.653
716.87115.569
816.39314.601
915.96413.693
1015.53113.043
1115.10812.523
1214.83611.971
1314.49311.562
1414.15911.157
1513.88110.729
1613.65910.401
1713.45310.019
1813.2259.642
1913.0089.321
2012.8229.074
2112.6328.839
2212.4368.571
2312.2428.402
2412.0338.144
2511.8977.989
2611.7617.855
2711.6297.648
2811.5007.487
2911.3487.311
3011.2317.112
3111.1016.936
3210.9626.753
3310.8126.615
3410.6396.485
3510.5026.298
3610.3576.156
3710.2386.012
3810.1265.882
399.9995.773
409.8965.634
419.7685.500
429.6585.403
439.5275.319
449.4005.209
459.3055.110
469.2094.997
479.1074.901
488.9794.772
498.8904.673
508.8004.570
518.6994.478
528.5884.387
538.4974.276
548.3674.178
558.2654.069
568.1783.951
578.0793.879
587.9923.805
597.8893.727
607.7903.621
617.6943.521
627.6053.448
637.5213.378
647.4213.296
657.3353.231
667.2433.165
677.1603.104
687.0853.024
696.9762.943
706.8872.884
716.8192.805
726.7322.742
736.6302.668
746.5292.602
756.4252.529
766.3292.464
776.2152.394
786.0962.330
795.9832.268
805.8832.187
815.7802.111
825.6752.040
835.5551.958
845.4531.890
855.3491.831
865.2401.752
875.1311.671
884.9971.605
894.8891.526
904.7521.438
914.6131.356
924.4581.259
934.3041.155
944.1351.028
953.8800.935
963.6600.828
973.3720.669
983.0050.528
992.5720.357


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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