Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.66539.894
209.41627.016
306.33918.770
404.57011.749
503.3066.954
602.3943.635
701.6851.896
801.0760.880
900.5520.298

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
143.04772.496
232.59262.129
328.23358.055
425.14554.700
522.30852.208
620.26148.731
718.82946.274
817.86843.966
916.75441.647
1015.66539.894
1114.70238.430
1213.87836.802
1313.14135.558
1412.56934.303
1511.99532.913
1611.34431.802
1710.66730.494
1810.31029.152
199.83827.961
209.41627.016
218.98426.098
228.63725.071
238.27824.349
247.89623.292
257.57922.627
267.30722.052
277.06021.176
286.80820.478
296.54319.665
306.33918.770
316.13417.952
325.97917.122
335.75716.468
345.59115.826
355.39614.950
365.22214.255
375.04913.567
384.87912.933
394.75412.417
404.57011.749
414.40111.114
424.27110.651
434.12410.267
443.9949.748
453.8669.292
463.7418.792
473.6238.351
483.5117.792
493.4007.382
503.3066.954
513.2206.577
523.1106.213
533.0205.803
542.9285.428
552.8235.064
562.7304.645
572.6484.409
582.5494.180
592.4713.937
602.3943.635
612.3143.350
622.2123.153
632.1542.977
642.0802.771
652.0142.618
661.9442.468
671.8742.334
681.8222.168
691.7592.006
701.6851.896
711.6231.752
721.5591.643
731.4931.522
741.4261.419
751.3691.311
761.3151.221
771.2551.127
781.1871.045
791.1340.971
801.0760.880
811.0260.801
820.9700.730
830.9180.655
840.8630.597
850.8140.550
860.7530.490
870.7020.434
880.6530.392
890.6020.345
900.5520.298
910.5110.259
920.4650.217
930.4080.178
940.3480.137
950.2940.111
960.2390.087
970.1740.057
980.1090.038
990.0330.021


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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