Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Product list for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.60118.748
203.6047.701
302.1584.252
401.3302.431
500.8671.486
600.5360.871
700.3160.525
800.1510.291
900.0240.127

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.399111.552
228.70872.032
320.13558.315
416.50148.351
513.30741.516
611.64533.561
710.17228.682
89.29224.625
98.37621.098
107.60118.748
117.07016.979
126.47015.205
135.93313.960
145.50512.792
155.02011.619
164.69510.766
174.4209.821
184.1248.937
193.8848.224
203.6047.701
213.4197.220
223.2386.697
233.0896.379
242.9525.911
252.7925.640
262.6615.413
272.5335.072
282.3734.816
292.2544.546
302.1584.252
312.0384.002
321.9303.752
331.8473.570
341.7663.404
351.6913.172
361.6133.004
371.5232.838
381.4512.694
391.3952.577
401.3302.431
411.2822.296
421.2292.202
431.1782.122
441.1162.019
451.0701.930
461.0231.831
470.9781.749
480.9381.643
490.9041.565
500.8671.486
510.8251.417
520.7821.351
530.7441.274
540.7021.207
550.6691.136
560.6391.062
570.6111.018
580.5790.974
590.5520.930
600.5360.871
610.5120.817
620.4910.780
630.4650.745
640.4360.705
650.4160.674
660.3920.644
670.3680.617
680.3500.582
690.3320.549
700.3160.525
710.3010.494
720.2830.470
730.2630.443
740.2420.420
750.2270.395
760.2130.374
770.1980.352
780.1820.332
790.1660.314
800.1510.291
810.1280.270
820.1140.252
830.1030.232
840.0900.216
850.0790.203
860.0670.186
870.0560.169
880.0450.156
890.0350.142
900.0240.127
910.0160.114
920.0060.099
930.0000.085
940.0000.070
950.0000.060
960.0000.049
970.0000.036
980.0000.026
990.0000.017


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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