Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Product list for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101.77017.099
200.9388.445
300.5795.214
400.3863.290
500.2602.178
600.1711.377
700.1030.879
800.0440.503
900.0000.203

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.82266.589
24.55047.402
33.67240.429
43.18535.141
52.74231.353
62.45026.718
72.22523.719
82.04121.110
91.90618.740
101.77017.099
111.65015.827
121.55714.516
131.46413.571
141.37412.666
151.27011.736
161.20211.045
171.12510.264
181.0589.518
190.9938.904
200.9388.445
210.8848.017
220.8487.545
230.8077.254
240.7736.820
250.7316.564
260.6936.349
270.6676.022
280.6365.773
290.6095.508
300.5795.214
310.5554.962
320.5294.707
330.5134.518
340.4954.345
350.4744.100
360.4523.919
370.4353.740
380.4203.582
390.4033.452
400.3863.290
410.3713.137
420.3533.029
430.3392.937
440.3292.818
450.3162.713
460.3012.597
470.2902.499
480.2802.371
490.2702.276
500.2602.178
510.2512.092
520.2432.009
530.2351.911
540.2271.825
550.2161.733
560.2041.635
570.1931.577
580.1861.518
590.1791.458
600.1711.377
610.1631.303
620.1561.250
630.1501.201
640.1441.144
650.1371.100
660.1311.056
670.1241.016
680.1160.965
690.1100.914
700.1030.879
710.0950.831
720.0890.794
730.0830.752
740.0760.715
750.0710.676
760.0650.642
770.0590.605
780.0530.573
790.0490.542
800.0440.503
810.0400.468
820.0350.436
830.0290.401
840.0240.372
850.0200.348
860.0150.316
870.0110.285
880.0060.261
890.0010.233
900.0000.203
910.0000.176
920.0000.146
930.0000.116
940.0000.082
950.0000.059
960.0000.034
970.0000.001
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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