Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Product list for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.2389.579
202.4825.012
301.6403.248
401.1282.145
500.7781.476
600.5080.969
700.3080.637
800.1450.373
900.0000.147

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
117.05746.480
211.80028.520
39.53323.399
47.97019.892
56.93717.546
66.24014.831
75.75213.148
85.12911.722
94.61610.450
104.2389.579
113.9998.907
123.7658.218
133.5507.722
143.3707.246
153.1966.757
163.0136.393
172.8655.981
182.7345.585
192.6105.258
202.4825.012
212.3874.783
222.2814.528
232.2054.370
242.1074.134
252.0173.995
261.9263.877
271.8253.697
281.7513.559
291.6943.412
301.6403.248
311.5813.106
321.5272.962
331.4802.855
341.4262.756
351.3722.616
361.3232.512
371.2732.408
381.2262.316
391.1722.241
401.1282.145
411.0962.055
421.0531.991
431.0211.936
440.9761.865
450.9431.802
460.9171.732
470.8751.672
480.8421.594
490.8101.536
500.7781.476
510.7431.423
520.7131.371
530.6861.310
540.6561.256
550.6271.198
560.5981.136
570.5691.098
580.5481.061
590.5271.022
600.5080.969
610.4860.921
620.4650.886
630.4420.854
640.4200.816
650.3990.787
660.3790.757
670.3600.730
680.3420.696
690.3280.661
700.3080.637
710.2930.605
720.2780.579
730.2590.550
740.2420.524
750.2300.496
760.2100.472
770.1870.446
780.1710.423
790.1580.401
800.1450.373
810.1270.348
820.1080.324
830.0940.298
840.0770.276
850.0620.258
860.0470.234
870.0340.211
880.0180.192
890.0040.170
900.0000.147
910.0000.126
920.0000.102
930.0000.077
940.0000.048
950.0000.029
960.0000.008
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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