Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Product list for Muttama Creek at Coolac



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Exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.770
204.210
302.396
401.406
500.875
600.519
700.313
800.169
900.064

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
155.322
235.642
328.946
424.120
520.821
616.983
714.622
812.650
910.926
109.770
118.895
128.014
137.392
146.806
156.214
165.782
175.300
184.848
194.481
204.210
213.961
223.689
233.522
243.277
253.134
263.014
272.834
282.698
292.554
302.396
312.262
322.128
332.029
341.939
351.813
361.721
371.630
381.551
391.486
401.406
411.330
421.278
431.233
441.176
451.126
461.071
471.024
480.964
490.920
500.875
510.835
520.798
530.753
540.715
550.674
560.631
570.605
580.580
590.554
600.519
610.488
620.465
630.445
640.421
650.403
660.385
670.368
680.348
690.327
700.313
710.294
720.279
730.263
740.249
750.234
760.220
770.207
780.194
790.183
800.169
810.156
820.144
830.132
840.121
850.113
860.102
870.091
880.083
890.074
900.064
910.055
920.045
930.036
940.025
950.019
960.011
970.002
980.000
990.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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