Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Product list for Muttama Creek at Coolac



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Exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac ( Jan 2012 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.7408.584
2015.4374.219
3010.4232.621
407.3261.664
505.2411.106
603.6110.698
702.5440.442
801.5990.246
900.7690.086

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
174.24245.471
257.55727.825
347.58222.594
440.82018.998
537.12516.597
633.78013.833
731.47512.134
829.13010.705
927.2859.442
1025.7408.584
1124.2287.927
1222.8637.257
1321.4916.778
1420.5056.322
1519.3635.855
1618.5325.510
1717.7535.121
1817.0964.750
1916.4214.446
2015.4374.219
2114.8684.007
2214.3253.774
2313.7163.630
2413.0603.415
2512.5473.289
2611.9753.182
2711.6603.021
2811.2022.898
2910.7602.766
3010.4232.621
3110.0542.496
329.7052.370
339.3382.276
348.9782.190
358.6282.068
368.3881.978
378.0941.889
387.8251.810
397.5931.745
407.3261.664
416.9951.588
426.7671.534
436.5171.488
446.3411.428
456.1401.375
465.9221.317
475.7581.267
485.5821.203
495.4131.155
505.2411.106
515.0751.062
524.9211.020
534.7160.970
544.5280.927
554.3370.880
564.1880.830
574.0320.801
583.8810.771
593.7380.740
603.6110.698
613.5000.661
623.4070.634
633.3190.608
643.1930.579
653.0960.556
663.0060.534
672.9110.513
682.7620.487
692.6430.460
702.5440.442
712.4450.417
722.3300.398
732.2130.376
742.1030.357
752.0320.336
761.9450.318
771.8680.299
781.7640.282
791.6690.266
801.5990.246
811.5070.227
821.4280.210
831.3360.192
841.2450.176
851.1910.163
861.1030.147
871.0230.130
880.9320.117
890.8460.102
900.7690.086
910.6980.072
920.6200.056
930.5410.039
940.4730.020
950.3930.008
960.3030.000
970.2140.000
980.1340.000
990.0300.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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