Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Product list for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Probability distribution for Muttama Creek at Coolac(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.9812.823
Median3.44113.922
Mean7.33517.974
75% Quartile10.68328.731
Interquartile Range9.70225.908

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.65667.772
235.32259.685
331.04856.507
428.53553.889
526.60351.945
625.13849.232
723.68547.315
822.29445.513
921.31743.703
1020.17642.334
1119.14141.189
1218.25739.917
1317.42138.944
1416.85837.962
1516.12936.873
1615.61036.001
1714.88934.974
1814.14433.918
1913.58232.978
2013.18232.231
2112.62731.504
2212.01430.688
2311.57930.112
2411.04029.266
2510.68328.731
2610.10428.268
279.72927.557
289.16326.988
298.77526.321
308.46725.580
318.11024.896
327.70924.194
337.38423.635
347.14323.079
356.84222.309
366.51421.687
376.21221.061
385.89820.471
395.66219.983
405.35419.336
415.13418.704
424.89218.231
434.70717.831
444.50917.277
454.33216.775
464.13916.208
473.95915.690
483.80315.008
493.63914.488
503.44113.922
513.23713.406
523.11512.886
532.99312.275
542.86311.688
552.73111.092
562.61210.368
572.4859.941
582.3789.511
592.2609.041
602.1478.430
612.0367.828
621.9327.395
631.8456.997
641.7726.518
651.6876.154
661.5995.790
671.5345.459
681.4575.041
691.3944.629
701.3154.345
711.2383.972
721.1783.687
731.1113.370
741.0443.102
750.9812.823
760.9222.588
770.8582.348
780.8072.141
790.7611.956
800.7021.731
810.6561.538
820.6121.370
830.5581.196
840.5161.064
850.4860.959
860.4530.830
870.4150.711
880.3660.625
890.3280.533
900.2880.443
910.2440.370
920.2090.296
930.1760.229
940.1410.165
950.1120.127
960.0850.092
970.0570.055
980.0300.032
990.0010.016


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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