Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Muttama Creek at Coolac


Return to catchment list
Product list for Muttama Creek at Coolac



Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Muttama Creek at Coolac ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.273
Median0.988
Mean5.037
75% Quartile3.590
Interquartile Range3.318

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
176.620
246.299
336.685
430.027
525.608
620.598
717.585
815.106
912.965
1011.544
1110.475
129.405
138.653
147.947
157.238
166.721
176.147
185.610
195.176
204.856
214.563
224.242
234.047
243.759
253.592
263.452
273.242
283.083
292.916
302.733
312.578
322.422
332.308
342.204
352.058
361.953
371.849
381.757
391.683
401.591
411.506
421.446
431.395
441.329
451.273
461.210
471.157
481.089
491.039
500.988
510.943
520.901
530.851
540.808
550.762
560.713
570.685
580.656
590.627
600.588
610.553
620.528
630.506
640.479
650.459
660.439
670.421
680.398
690.375
700.360
710.339
720.323
730.305
740.289
750.273
760.258
770.243
780.230
790.217
800.202
810.188
820.175
830.162
840.151
850.141
860.130
870.118
880.109
890.099
900.089
910.080
920.069
930.059
940.048
950.041
960.033
970.024
980.017
990.010


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence