Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Oct6.2410.1690.0041.10872.878
Oct-Nov8.6600.2080.0043.26479.449
Oct-Dec10.7040.2150.0049.22780.697

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.00537.080
201.86420.333
301.28111.996
400.9236.836
500.6884.070
600.5142.296
700.3701.323
800.2420.695
900.1320.277

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
19.60184.088
27.21869.023
36.03263.111
45.07858.249
54.55054.646
64.02749.634
73.67746.110
83.41342.818
93.19039.538
103.00537.080
112.82435.047
122.63532.812
132.48431.126
142.35329.447
152.25027.619
162.13926.182
172.06524.527
181.99422.869
191.92821.438
201.86420.333
211.79419.286
221.71418.147
231.63117.368
241.57016.261
251.51815.585
261.46615.015
271.42014.168
281.37813.515
291.32912.778
301.28111.996
311.24111.307
321.20610.633
331.17610.120
341.1369.631
351.0908.986
361.0528.493
371.0188.020
380.9847.596
390.9507.261
400.9236.836
410.8966.443
420.8706.162
430.8475.933
440.8165.629
450.7905.366
460.7655.082
470.7474.835
480.7294.526
490.7104.302
500.6884.070
510.6733.867
520.6543.672
530.6333.453
540.6163.254
550.5993.060
560.5812.837
570.5672.711
580.5442.589
590.5292.459
600.5142.296
610.4982.141
620.4812.033
630.4661.936
640.4551.822
650.4401.737
660.4241.652
670.4111.576
680.3961.481
690.3831.388
700.3701.323
710.3571.239
720.3451.174
730.3331.100
740.3201.038
750.3080.971
760.2960.915
770.2830.855
780.2690.803
790.2580.755
800.2420.695
810.2320.642
820.2200.593
830.2060.542
840.1960.501
850.1840.467
860.1720.424
870.1630.382
880.1530.350
890.1420.314
900.1320.277
910.1200.245
920.1080.210
930.0950.177
940.0830.140
950.0710.117
960.0600.092
970.0450.062
980.0280.041
990.0010.021


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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