Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1993) (GL)
Aug7.0131.0940.0201.8399.712
Aug-Sep13.4811.8580.0322.96435.908
Aug-Oct19.7212.0270.0394.07357.221

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1038.57342.334
2030.85132.231
3025.57825.580
4020.62319.336
5016.41313.922
6012.3068.430
708.5574.345
805.0161.731
902.2520.443

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
158.09367.772
252.37759.685
349.31856.507
447.07253.889
545.25651.945
643.86049.232
742.20547.315
841.14145.513
939.94443.703
1038.57342.334
1137.77641.189
1236.87139.917
1335.98538.944
1435.14537.962
1534.38036.873
1633.54136.001
1732.94834.974
1832.09833.918
1931.49232.978
2030.85132.231
2130.29331.504
2229.74130.688
2329.27530.112
2428.76429.266
2528.18128.731
2627.67128.268
2727.17627.557
2826.64926.988
2926.09926.321
3025.57825.580
3125.09824.896
3224.51724.194
3324.03423.635
3423.52923.079
3523.08522.309
3622.60221.687
3722.09821.061
3821.54520.471
3921.09919.983
4020.62319.336
4120.20818.704
4219.74118.231
4319.24817.831
4418.81217.277
4518.44916.775
4617.98516.208
4717.59315.690
4817.21515.008
4916.83114.488
5016.41313.922
5115.89613.406
5215.57512.886
5315.19712.275
5414.80011.688
5514.41411.092
5613.91110.368
5713.5179.941
5813.1889.511
5912.8229.041
6012.3068.430
6111.9387.828
6211.5037.395
6311.1246.997
6410.7336.518
6510.3806.154
6610.0045.790
679.5755.459
689.1985.041
698.8734.629
708.5574.345
718.2533.972
727.8203.687
737.4813.370
747.0723.102
756.6562.823
766.3062.588
776.0212.348
785.7322.141
795.3611.956
805.0161.731
814.8061.538
824.4651.370
834.1461.196
843.8781.064
853.5510.959
863.2550.830
872.9470.711
882.6600.625
892.4340.533
902.2520.443
912.0560.370
921.8700.296
931.6230.229
941.4190.165
951.1610.127
960.8780.092
970.7010.055
980.5110.032
990.2560.016


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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