Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


Return to catchment list
Product list for Muttama Creek at Coolac


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1990) (GL)
Jul6.5734.6430.1260.0311.23449.720
Jul-Aug13.7149.3820.4760.0503.40879.103
Jul-Sep20.28110.5230.7980.0634.54793.633

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1017.85850.936
2010.46037.527
306.82428.727
404.66220.581
503.23913.855
602.2367.851
701.4664.102
800.8291.826
900.3160.573

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
145.70784.720
236.90273.979
332.06569.759
428.55366.282
525.99763.700
623.50360.097
721.66457.551
820.38955.158
919.09552.755
1017.85850.936
1116.62749.417
1215.60447.727
1314.71646.435
1413.85745.131
1513.09743.686
1612.53042.529
1712.00741.166
1811.46439.764
1910.96138.518
2010.46037.527
219.93936.563
229.57735.481
239.23034.718
248.83333.597
258.47532.890
268.02632.277
277.71531.337
287.38030.585
297.07729.704
306.82428.727
316.58427.826
326.36726.903
336.08626.169
345.89025.441
355.65524.434
365.45023.623
375.25822.808
385.04122.044
394.84321.414
404.66220.581
414.45719.772
424.32319.170
434.14418.662
444.01917.963
453.85217.334
463.72616.629
473.57015.990
483.45315.158
493.33714.530
503.23913.855
513.13513.246
523.03212.641
532.95611.941
542.84611.281
552.73710.622
562.5979.841
572.5099.390
582.4288.943
592.3298.463
602.2367.851
612.1597.263
622.0756.849
631.9896.475
641.9116.032
651.8235.700
661.7305.372
671.6575.077
681.5774.709
691.5264.349
701.4664.102
711.3903.780
721.3143.535
731.2453.262
741.1853.031
751.1402.789
761.0762.585
771.0022.376
780.9382.193
790.8752.028
800.8291.826
810.7791.650
820.7321.495
830.6721.331
840.6171.205
850.5651.103
860.5270.975
870.4700.855
880.4150.767
890.3680.670
900.3160.573
910.2680.491
920.2180.406
930.1770.328
940.1200.247
950.0660.199
960.0220.151
970.0000.097
980.0000.062
990.0000.034


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence