Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Product list for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1993) (GL)
Aug7.1214.9241.0940.0202.0509.712
Aug-Sep13.6946.7221.8580.0323.22735.908
Aug-Oct20.0477.7492.0270.0394.43457.221

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1028.77542.334
2021.75332.231
3016.08625.580
4011.66219.336
508.17613.922
605.4758.430
703.4444.345
801.8721.731
900.8310.443

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
148.58567.772
243.90259.685
340.10456.507
437.83253.889
535.77651.945
634.13949.232
732.53947.315
831.26845.513
929.95043.703
1028.77542.334
1127.86441.189
1227.17539.917
1326.39038.944
1425.70437.962
1524.86736.873
1624.31236.001
1723.59434.974
1823.00633.918
1922.39532.978
2021.75332.231
2121.11231.504
2220.46630.688
2319.79330.112
2419.32829.266
2518.80728.731
2618.23628.268
2717.75127.557
2817.21726.988
2916.62426.321
3016.08625.580
3115.57924.896
3215.09624.194
3314.66923.635
3414.28523.079
3513.79422.309
3613.31321.687
3712.88621.061
3812.41820.471
3912.07019.983
4011.66219.336
4111.28618.704
4210.85018.231
4310.58217.831
4410.27717.277
459.85516.775
469.58116.208
479.16415.690
488.78015.008
498.45414.488
508.17613.922
517.86613.406
527.58312.886
537.25612.275
547.02011.688
556.67011.092
566.47710.368
576.2229.941
586.0349.511
595.7239.041
605.4758.430
615.2407.828
625.0297.395
634.8006.997
644.6326.518
654.3966.154
664.1795.790
673.9535.459
683.8315.041
693.6174.629
703.4444.345
713.2293.972
723.0603.687
732.9193.370
742.7663.102
752.5992.823
762.4452.588
772.3152.348
782.1372.141
792.0051.956
801.8721.731
811.7671.538
821.6531.370
831.5481.196
841.4511.064
851.3590.959
861.2300.830
871.1330.711
881.0250.625
890.9390.533
900.8310.443
910.7340.370
920.6450.296
930.5380.229
940.4670.165
950.3750.127
960.2880.092
970.2210.055
980.1410.032
990.0740.016


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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