Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


Return to catchment list
Product list for Muttama Creek at Coolac


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Oct6.3460.3110.0050.0041.17072.878
Oct-Nov8.8230.4540.0050.0043.63379.449
Oct-Dec11.0080.4590.0050.00410.34880.697

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.04437.080
203.13520.333
302.20311.996
401.6016.836
501.2084.070
600.9092.296
700.6721.323
800.4510.695
900.2580.277

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
116.45484.088
211.78669.023
310.11863.111
48.59958.249
57.52354.646
66.98549.634
76.28346.110
85.79642.818
95.34139.538
105.04437.080
114.76435.047
124.43832.812
134.15231.126
143.96229.447
153.83527.619
163.69426.182
173.53424.527
183.40522.869
193.27621.438
203.13520.333
213.03719.286
222.94118.147
232.81117.368
242.69016.261
252.59315.585
262.50315.015
272.41914.168
282.33613.515
292.27012.778
302.20311.996
312.13511.307
322.08010.633
332.00310.120
341.9389.631
351.8848.986
361.8128.493
371.7458.020
381.6967.596
391.6527.261
401.6016.836
411.5586.443
421.5066.162
431.4705.933
441.4375.629
451.3955.366
461.3555.082
471.3234.835
481.2884.526
491.2514.302
501.2084.070
511.1733.867
521.1523.672
531.1203.453
541.0893.254
551.0533.060
561.0212.837
570.9912.711
580.9672.589
590.9382.459
600.9092.296
610.8872.141
620.8572.033
630.8251.936
640.8061.822
650.7841.737
660.7601.652
670.7381.576
680.7171.481
690.7011.388
700.6721.323
710.6451.239
720.6221.174
730.6051.100
740.5831.038
750.5580.971
760.5340.915
770.5080.855
780.4920.803
790.4720.755
800.4510.695
810.4300.642
820.4060.593
830.3870.542
840.3700.501
850.3470.467
860.3280.424
870.3090.382
880.2910.350
890.2760.314
900.2580.277
910.2390.245
920.2210.210
930.1970.177
940.1730.140
950.1520.117
960.1370.092
970.1160.062
980.0850.041
990.0480.021


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence