Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Product list for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Oct6.3531.0270.1690.0041.20872.878
Oct-Nov8.8161.5500.2080.0043.59779.449
Oct-Dec10.8991.7230.2150.0049.71080.697

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.65637.080
204.91620.333
303.47311.996
402.5376.836
501.9354.070
601.4702.296
701.0911.323
800.7480.695
900.4450.277

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
123.66984.088
217.00369.023
314.76163.111
413.27558.249
511.75354.646
610.67249.634
79.74446.110
88.90342.818
98.22339.538
107.65637.080
117.23235.047
126.81932.812
136.44631.126
146.24729.447
155.92927.619
165.73926.182
175.52224.527
185.32122.869
195.14421.438
204.91620.333
214.78319.286
224.55218.147
234.38917.368
244.23816.261
254.11115.585
263.97415.015
273.81314.168
283.69013.515
293.57012.778
303.47311.996
313.36911.307
323.27510.633
333.14710.120
343.0339.631
352.9308.986
362.8378.493
372.7518.020
382.6787.596
392.6117.261
402.5376.836
412.4696.443
422.4046.162
432.3395.933
442.2815.629
452.2185.366
462.1575.082
472.1074.835
482.0294.526
491.9824.302
501.9354.070
511.8913.867
521.8333.672
531.7793.453
541.7303.254
551.6903.060
561.6552.837
571.6032.711
581.5692.589
591.5172.459
601.4702.296
611.4332.141
621.3862.033
631.3491.936
641.3121.822
651.2751.737
661.2421.652
671.1991.576
681.1591.481
691.1261.388
701.0911.323
711.0461.239
721.0161.174
730.9811.100
740.9441.038
750.9120.971
760.8810.915
770.8490.855
780.8210.803
790.7840.755
800.7480.695
810.7230.642
820.6850.593
830.6500.542
840.6180.501
850.5830.467
860.5560.424
870.5250.382
880.4930.350
890.4680.314
900.4450.277
910.4130.245
920.3760.210
930.3460.177
940.3110.140
950.2750.117
960.2450.092
970.2080.062
980.1690.041
990.1030.021


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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