Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


Return to catchment list
Product list for Muttama Creek at Coolac


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
Nov2.4630.5230.0390.0002.3892.010
Nov-Dec4.5460.6960.0460.0008.5034.090
Nov-Jan6.6670.7590.0460.0008.70756.392

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.45917.099
202.5608.445
301.6295.214
401.1613.290
500.8242.178
600.5881.377
700.4040.879
800.2410.503
900.1060.203

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.95966.589
211.09647.402
38.91040.429
47.72335.141
56.83731.353
66.17626.718
75.70023.719
85.17221.110
94.70718.740
104.45917.099
114.19015.827
123.92014.516
133.71513.571
143.53912.666
153.33711.736
163.14311.045
172.97410.264
182.8039.518
192.6588.904
202.5608.445
212.4138.017
222.2967.545
232.1957.254
242.0876.820
252.0216.564
261.9306.349
271.8426.022
281.7545.773
291.6805.508
301.6295.214
311.5704.962
321.5234.707
331.4834.518
341.4374.345
351.3864.100
361.3293.919
371.2873.740
381.2293.582
391.1903.452
401.1613.290
411.1133.137
421.0813.029
431.0472.937
441.0112.818
450.9712.713
460.9352.597
470.9032.499
480.8752.371
490.8492.276
500.8242.178
510.7982.092
520.7722.009
530.7461.911
540.7241.825
550.7051.733
560.6811.635
570.6561.577
580.6341.518
590.6111.458
600.5881.377
610.5701.303
620.5491.250
630.5311.201
640.5111.144
650.4921.100
660.4721.056
670.4551.016
680.4400.965
690.4230.914
700.4040.879
710.3870.831
720.3690.794
730.3510.752
740.3340.715
750.3180.676
760.3030.642
770.2840.605
780.2700.573
790.2550.542
800.2410.503
810.2260.468
820.2110.436
830.1980.401
840.1830.372
850.1680.348
860.1550.316
870.1420.285
880.1300.261
890.1170.233
900.1060.203
910.0940.176
920.0820.146
930.0700.116
940.0550.082
950.0430.059
960.0280.034
970.0080.001
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence