Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1984) (GL)
Jan2.2570.2780.0000.0000.13952.303
Jan-Feb3.0370.2781.2940.0000.28257.509
Jan-Mar4.1660.2786.2930.0000.46358.830

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.8648.584
202.7244.219
301.7362.621
401.1671.664
500.7631.106
600.5080.698
700.3080.442
800.1380.246
900.0010.086

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
119.93445.471
214.13127.825
310.87322.594
49.26718.998
58.12316.597
67.15213.833
76.47612.134
85.94410.705
95.4179.442
104.8648.584
114.5097.927
124.1517.257
133.9316.778
143.7046.322
153.4785.855
163.3225.510
173.1465.121
182.9964.750
192.8524.446
202.7244.219
212.6114.007
222.4693.774
232.3643.630
242.2673.415
252.1863.289
262.0953.182
272.0043.021
281.9112.898
291.8102.766
301.7362.621
311.6632.496
321.6132.370
331.5572.276
341.4892.190
351.4242.068
361.3711.978
371.3131.889
381.2601.810
391.2131.745
401.1671.664
411.1211.588
421.0701.534
431.0231.488
440.9841.428
450.9451.375
460.8991.317
470.8681.267
480.8331.203
490.8011.155
500.7631.106
510.7401.062
520.7111.020
530.6840.970
540.6510.927
550.6230.880
560.5950.830
570.5720.801
580.5510.771
590.5300.740
600.5080.698
610.4880.661
620.4630.634
630.4420.608
640.4200.579
650.4010.556
660.3800.534
670.3610.513
680.3430.487
690.3250.460
700.3080.442
710.2900.417
720.2700.398
730.2530.376
740.2360.357
750.2190.336
760.2040.318
770.1880.299
780.1680.282
790.1530.266
800.1380.246
810.1210.227
820.1090.210
830.0950.192
840.0830.176
850.0710.163
860.0550.147
870.0420.130
880.0300.117
890.0180.102
900.0010.086
910.0000.072
920.0000.056
930.0000.039
940.0000.020
950.0000.008
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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