Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac


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Historical and exceedance probability for Muttama Creek at Coolac ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1984) (GL)
Jan2.2130.0001.1790.0000.04752.303
Jan-Feb3.0031.29411.0360.0000.30457.509
Jan-Mar4.2076.29312.3860.0000.95158.830

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1029.7238.584
2018.2574.219
3012.0602.621
408.5361.664
506.1811.106
604.2500.698
702.9570.442
801.8760.246
900.9200.086

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
185.45245.471
265.09927.825
353.07122.594
446.94818.998
542.06916.597
638.78513.833
735.80612.134
833.30210.705
931.3949.442
1029.7238.584
1128.1297.927
1226.4527.257
1324.8826.778
1423.6686.322
1522.6505.855
1621.5365.510
1720.8615.121
1820.0464.750
1919.0924.446
2018.2574.219
2117.1804.007
2216.6903.774
2316.0073.630
2415.3963.415
2514.7933.289
2614.1233.182
2713.5713.021
2813.0242.898
2912.5392.766
3012.0602.621
3111.6932.496
3211.3492.370
3311.0192.276
3410.6872.190
3510.2942.068
369.9131.978
379.5301.889
389.2411.810
398.8801.745
408.5361.664
418.2421.588
427.9631.534
437.6681.488
447.4621.428
457.2361.375
467.0271.317
476.8051.267
486.5891.203
496.3901.155
506.1811.106
515.9391.062
525.6981.020
535.5230.970
545.3380.927
555.1380.880
564.9060.830
574.7530.801
584.5990.771
594.4000.740
604.2500.698
614.1060.661
624.0040.634
633.8530.608
643.7400.579
653.6260.556
663.5030.534
673.3770.513
683.2570.487
693.0990.460
702.9570.442
712.8490.417
722.7190.398
732.6250.376
742.5170.357
752.4020.336
762.2930.318
772.1820.299
782.0850.282
791.9680.266
801.8760.246
811.7740.227
821.6690.210
831.5820.192
841.5050.176
851.3980.163
861.3150.147
871.2120.130
881.1130.117
891.0020.102
900.9200.086
910.8200.072
920.7390.056
930.6540.039
940.5690.020
950.4790.008
960.3780.000
970.2760.000
980.1750.000
990.0570.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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