Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10130.105174.517
2097.616130.721
3077.749103.367
4063.79379.752
5052.58361.559
6043.53745.197
7035.15232.987
8026.87522.539
9018.47313.016

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1245.088288.080
2209.763251.821
3185.624237.593
4173.481225.884
5165.521217.203
6155.617205.104
7147.477196.574
8139.476188.575
9133.672180.562
10130.105174.517
11125.606169.479
12121.689163.894
13118.491159.637
14114.904155.353
15110.588150.622
16107.585146.849
17105.176142.423
18101.996137.893
1999.839133.888
2097.616130.721
2195.077127.652
2293.214124.225
2391.504121.823
2488.851118.313
2586.531116.108
2684.857114.208
2782.497111.309
2880.866109.003
2979.516106.321
3077.749103.367
3176.081100.663
3274.31197.917
3372.82895.749
3471.47293.613
3570.28990.685
3668.72688.349
3767.39686.021
3866.23283.854
3965.09082.079
4063.79379.752
4162.72877.510
4261.50875.854
4359.97174.464
4458.94672.561
4557.76570.857
4656.87968.959
4755.71067.246
4854.66465.024
4953.50163.353
5052.58361.559
5151.36659.941
5250.51158.334
5349.68756.470
5448.90954.703
5548.03352.927
5647.12650.800
5746.21649.556
5845.32248.310
5944.53246.955
6043.53745.197
6142.59643.468
6241.87242.221
6340.91441.070
6439.97639.673
6539.23038.599
6638.41937.514
6737.52936.511
6836.74735.221
6936.10133.914
7035.15232.987
7134.31731.736
7233.19930.749
7332.26229.607
7431.44728.602
7530.57227.505
7629.84526.540
7729.23025.506
7828.28224.566
7927.61223.679
8026.87522.539
8126.07421.488
8225.20820.508
8324.46119.419
8423.57218.526
8522.55017.765
8621.76116.762
8720.95515.752
8820.18914.957
8919.25314.025
9018.47313.016
9117.40012.100
9216.35811.052
9315.2189.974
9413.9748.716
9512.8767.851
9611.7746.893
9710.4625.571
988.9044.504
996.7023.348


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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