Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.67624.988
2011.86516.287
309.26912.162
407.3939.153
505.8897.050
604.7285.224
703.6173.849
802.5182.585
901.2971.279

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
136.78770.133
228.97650.826
325.57844.684
423.01040.212
521.59237.067
620.48633.232
719.36430.727
818.49828.512
917.50726.451
1016.67624.988
1115.92723.825
1215.32822.597
1314.82121.690
1414.22820.800
1513.74819.862
1613.35219.148
1712.89218.319
1812.51717.504
1912.22116.815
2011.86516.287
2111.52215.785
2211.24815.217
2310.96414.860
2410.67714.316
2510.47613.989
2610.17113.709
279.90813.276
289.66912.940
299.46712.575
309.26912.162
319.03411.800
328.84111.424
338.65611.140
348.44210.876
358.22610.493
368.04210.206
377.8699.914
387.7109.652
397.5639.433
407.3939.153
417.2608.885
427.1048.692
436.9058.526
446.7188.306
456.5798.110
466.4437.887
476.3157.697
486.1887.444
496.0287.251
505.8897.050
515.8056.869
525.6796.693
535.5296.479
545.4166.289
555.3016.081
565.1825.853
575.0765.715
584.9565.574
594.8505.426
604.7285.224
614.6295.036
624.5154.898
634.4034.768
644.2844.614
654.1764.492
664.0864.369
673.9484.255
683.8474.107
693.7193.956
703.6173.849
713.5193.703
723.4253.587
733.2893.452
743.1883.332
753.0443.200
762.9333.083
772.8462.956
782.7312.840
792.6262.729
802.5182.585
812.4252.450
822.3202.323
832.2032.180
842.0782.060
851.9561.957
861.8561.819
871.7601.678
881.6201.564
891.4681.429
901.2971.279
911.1681.139
921.0120.976
930.8580.802
940.6720.590
950.5090.439
960.3150.264
970.1280.009
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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