Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10150.873177.544
20116.583132.453
3094.752104.176
4078.55179.702
5065.27560.865
6054.53544.032
7044.04831.622
8033.56921.182
9023.73611.891

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1256.851294.000
2232.198256.848
3210.720242.265
4198.466230.262
5186.284221.359
6174.813208.948
7170.143200.195
8162.230191.984
9156.559183.755
10150.873177.544
11146.913172.366
12143.007166.623
13138.405162.245
14133.958157.836
15130.789152.966
16127.992149.080
17124.615144.520
18122.101139.850
19118.929135.720
20116.583132.453
21114.415129.285
22112.343125.747
23109.935123.265
24107.428119.638
25105.191117.359
26103.037115.394
27101.186112.395
2898.428110.010
2996.753107.234
3094.752104.176
3192.959101.376
3291.28498.531
3389.45996.285
3487.60394.072
3586.18991.037
3684.68088.614
3783.21586.201
3881.80283.955
3979.94082.115
4078.55179.702
4177.10077.378
4275.50975.662
4374.30874.221
4472.78972.250
4571.47870.485
4670.02068.519
4768.56566.746
4867.49564.447
4966.43262.719
5065.27560.865
5164.24259.195
5262.98157.536
5361.99555.613
5460.75753.792
5559.56451.964
5658.29349.777
5757.32348.499
5856.46047.220
5955.36545.831
6054.53544.032
6153.31742.264
6252.22540.992
6351.11239.818
6450.32938.396
6549.38137.304
6648.37436.202
6747.32735.185
6846.06733.878
6944.94232.558
7044.04831.622
7143.08330.362
7242.06929.369
7341.02028.222
7440.00827.215
7538.84926.118
7638.02025.156
7736.95724.125
7835.55823.190
7934.64922.311
8033.56921.182
8132.78820.144
8231.81019.179
8330.62518.109
8429.73317.234
8528.83216.491
8627.87815.513
8726.99914.532
8826.03513.762
8924.93412.861
9023.73611.891
9122.42711.013
9220.93810.013
9319.7548.989
9418.2867.802
9516.8516.990
9615.3756.098
9713.1104.875
9810.9963.900
998.2622.856


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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