Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1046.49881.234
2038.40358.763
3033.51445.118
4029.53133.776
5026.30725.413
6023.27418.205
7020.44613.013
8017.4368.681
9013.9664.805

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
172.262140.519
264.776121.542
360.611114.101
457.524107.982
554.319103.448
652.04297.137
750.14592.693
848.68988.531
947.56084.369
1046.49881.234
1145.46278.627
1244.49375.740
1343.43373.545
1442.52871.339
1541.83968.909
1641.16366.975
1740.35364.712
1839.75462.403
1939.16460.368
2038.40358.763
2137.96957.212
2237.51455.485
2337.01854.278
2436.43052.520
2535.96051.419
2635.52550.472
2734.90649.033
2834.43547.892
2934.03546.569
3033.51445.118
3133.10743.795
3232.59642.458
3332.18041.406
3431.76640.374
3531.30338.966
3630.96837.847
3730.63236.737
3830.24135.710
3929.89234.871
4029.53133.776
4129.18832.726
4228.80931.954
4328.46531.308
4428.09730.428
4527.76529.642
4627.46528.771
4727.19327.988
4826.86926.978
4926.60426.221
5026.30725.413
5126.03024.687
5225.68623.969
5325.43923.139
5425.05822.356
5524.76821.573
5624.44620.639
5724.14120.096
5823.89919.553
5923.58018.965
6023.27418.205
6123.02917.460
6222.70916.925
6322.41416.433
6422.18915.837
6521.86615.381
6621.61214.920
6721.33914.496
6821.06313.952
6920.72813.402
7020.44613.013
7120.14312.489
7219.86812.077
7319.57411.601
7419.33811.183
7518.98710.728
7618.71910.329
7718.4369.902
7818.1009.514
7917.7609.149
8017.4368.681
8117.1198.250
8216.8747.849
8316.5237.404
8416.1257.040
8515.9006.730
8615.5966.322
8715.2145.912
8814.8235.590
8914.3305.213
9013.9664.805
9113.4574.435
9213.0844.013
9312.5343.579
9411.9463.073
9511.3302.726
9610.6132.343
979.9451.814
988.9101.388
997.5700.928


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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