Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola ( Jan 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.45324.988
209.36816.287
307.21612.162
405.7039.153
504.4727.050
603.4695.224
702.5813.849
801.6732.585
900.6881.279

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
130.27270.133
223.83850.826
320.89744.684
418.74840.212
517.59237.067
616.66733.232
715.75630.727
814.84028.512
914.09626.451
1013.45324.988
1112.85423.825
1212.23722.597
1311.79321.690
1411.36320.800
1510.96819.862
1610.65519.148
1710.27618.319
189.91317.504
199.62016.815
209.36816.287
219.06715.785
228.80115.217
238.60914.860
248.37914.316
258.13113.989
267.99213.709
277.75013.276
287.54312.940
297.36412.575
307.21612.162
317.02611.800
326.86611.424
336.71911.140
346.53110.876
356.37510.493
366.23310.206
376.0799.914
385.9379.652
395.8289.433
405.7039.153
415.5538.885
425.4068.692
435.2618.526
445.1358.306
455.0138.110
464.9137.887
474.8137.697
484.7027.444
494.5677.251
504.4727.050
514.3456.869
524.2286.693
534.1376.479
544.0406.289
553.9266.081
563.8425.853
573.7565.715
583.6475.574
593.5485.426
603.4695.224
613.3765.036
623.2894.898
633.2144.768
643.1364.614
653.0424.492
662.9304.369
672.8434.255
682.7564.107
692.6613.956
702.5813.849
712.4843.703
722.3763.587
732.3043.452
742.2123.332
752.1183.200
761.9943.083
771.9212.956
781.8372.840
791.7552.729
801.6732.585
811.5932.450
821.5062.323
831.4162.180
841.3252.060
851.2391.957
861.1321.819
871.0381.678
880.9041.564
890.7831.429
900.6881.279
910.5611.139
920.4630.976
930.3160.802
940.1760.590
950.0110.439
960.0000.264
970.0000.009
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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