Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile25.02917.755
Median41.79141.762
Mean50.22252.668
75% Quartile67.42877.789
Interquartile Range42.39960.035

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1168.507183.536
2146.445161.453
3135.436152.780
4124.279145.639
5116.234140.339
6111.275132.945
7106.472127.726
8102.868122.826
999.755117.909
1096.297114.193
1193.087111.092
1290.985107.648
1388.043105.019
1486.026102.369
1583.45899.437
1681.14197.094
1779.32194.339
1877.49891.513
1975.79789.007
2074.48287.021
2172.88185.091
2271.52282.932
2369.91581.414
2468.68579.190
2567.45077.790
2666.31576.580
2765.22274.730
2863.91573.255
2962.75671.534
3061.56069.631
3160.30067.884
3258.81366.102
3357.45464.691
3456.50163.297
3555.37761.378
3654.28359.841
3753.18958.303
3851.92756.867
3950.78255.686
4049.65254.133
4148.91852.630
4248.00051.517
4347.28250.579
4446.64549.292
4545.79348.136
4645.02546.844
4744.03045.673
4843.37744.150
4942.56843.000
5041.79141.762
5140.95840.642
5240.25339.527
5339.71538.228
5439.09936.995
5538.46835.751
5637.80634.257
5737.11233.381
5836.53732.503
5935.97731.546
6035.27830.303
6134.69429.078
6234.08028.194
6333.39827.376
6432.69326.384
6531.84325.621
6631.19224.849
6730.54024.137
6829.74923.220
6929.04322.292
7028.37621.633
7127.65420.746
7227.10120.046
7326.39919.238
7425.71518.527
7525.02217.753
7624.40817.074
7723.64216.347
7822.95415.688
7922.26915.068
8021.65514.272
8121.07813.542
8220.19512.864
8319.56512.113
8418.87111.499
8518.14110.979
8617.39910.296
8716.4629.612
8815.7309.077
8915.1718.453
9014.3247.782
9113.4757.177
9212.8186.491
9312.0025.793
9410.9774.988
959.8054.441
968.9003.844
977.6223.035
986.4282.397
994.2161.724


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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