Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile20.47821.668
Median33.79145.116
Mean43.08065.071
75% Quartile55.86289.016
Interquartile Range35.38467.348

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1163.207282.770
2137.549238.620
3125.959221.485
4116.674207.504
5107.887197.224
6100.937183.051
795.514173.186
891.067164.050
987.402155.021
1084.072148.302
1180.623142.771
1278.331136.715
1375.897132.157
1473.775127.624
1571.884122.683
1669.895118.795
1767.717114.294
1866.354109.759
1964.510105.810
2063.161102.730
2161.64499.781
2260.44796.531
2358.67794.280
2456.89591.032
2555.87089.017
2654.63087.295
2753.52984.698
2852.54582.656
2951.19680.308
3050.23177.755
3149.22975.448
3248.25673.136
3347.05071.331
3446.13869.572
3545.29067.188
3644.42965.309
3743.44663.458
3842.55461.753
3941.64660.369
4041.03658.571
4140.20756.856
4239.37355.601
4338.74954.554
4438.06353.131
4537.38851.867
4636.61650.469
4735.79749.216
4835.02947.603
4934.52246.400
5033.79145.116
5133.28443.965
5232.70942.827
5332.12641.515
5431.67740.278
5531.02039.041
5630.43937.566
5730.00736.708
5829.41735.850
5928.76734.919
6028.13533.716
6127.63932.535
6227.07631.685
6326.48730.901
6426.11229.952
6525.56629.222
6625.02128.485
6724.47527.804
6823.87026.927
6923.47126.040
7023.00825.409
7122.44524.558
7221.99723.885
7321.36823.106
7420.95122.419
7520.47321.667
7619.99021.005
7719.38920.292
7818.82619.643
7918.31719.028
8017.78718.235
8117.24517.501
8216.74516.813
8316.32016.043
8415.73615.409
8515.19814.866
8614.53714.146
8713.94913.416
8813.40612.837
8912.79112.152
9012.27211.405
9111.59710.720
9210.9659.927
9310.1939.099
949.4488.117
958.7887.430
967.8526.656
976.7475.559
985.8444.645
994.6073.615


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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