Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile25.63917.755
Median43.37241.762
Mean51.51152.668
75% Quartile69.05477.789
Interquartile Range43.41660.035

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1171.530183.536
2151.057161.453
3136.729152.780
4127.818145.639
5121.285140.339
6114.398132.945
7108.288127.726
8105.003122.826
9101.900117.909
1098.619114.193
1195.769111.092
1292.431107.648
1390.047105.019
1487.503102.369
1585.07499.437
1683.29997.094
1781.03694.339
1879.36491.513
1977.11889.007
2075.40187.021
2173.85185.091
2272.62182.932
2371.24781.414
2470.18979.190
2569.06377.790
2667.89476.580
2766.54274.730
2865.33473.255
2963.81471.534
3062.44369.631
3161.40367.884
3260.12666.102
3359.06464.691
3457.91963.297
3556.80261.378
3655.43259.841
3754.34058.303
3853.32156.867
3952.51155.686
4051.36554.133
4150.42752.630
4249.43151.517
4348.68950.579
4447.75249.292
4546.95748.136
4646.26846.844
4745.58945.673
4844.80044.150
4944.13943.000
5043.37241.762
5142.60740.642
5241.70339.527
5341.02338.228
5440.36436.995
5539.57035.751
5638.78834.257
5737.88533.381
5837.17732.503
5936.58731.546
6036.05530.303
6135.47129.078
6234.86428.194
6334.03727.376
6433.33126.384
6532.61725.621
6632.01924.849
6731.37624.137
6830.65623.220
6929.83222.292
7029.12521.633
7128.51020.746
7227.85720.046
7327.06719.238
7426.50318.527
7525.61717.753
7625.05017.074
7724.45116.347
7823.76015.688
7923.21615.068
8022.44014.272
8121.68013.542
8220.92912.864
8320.23412.113
8419.52011.499
8518.83510.979
8618.05610.296
8717.1859.612
8816.4139.077
8915.6778.453
9014.9017.782
9113.9927.177
9213.2476.491
9312.4745.793
9411.5774.988
9510.5394.441
969.4413.844
978.0723.035
986.7412.397
994.5881.724


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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