Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile8.7506.367
Median12.36116.463
Mean13.60020.349
75% Quartile17.18630.621
Interquartile Range8.43624.253

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
135.92469.963
231.05161.792
329.10858.581
427.62855.936
526.38753.973
625.39151.233
724.36049.297
823.48147.478
922.91845.652
1022.36244.271
1121.98243.117
1221.54941.835
1321.10240.855
1420.67939.866
1520.29738.770
1619.86437.894
1719.47936.862
1819.12635.802
1918.81334.860
2018.48734.113
2118.28933.385
2217.90632.570
2317.65931.996
2417.41731.153
2517.19230.621
2616.92230.161
2716.70229.456
2816.39928.892
2916.15628.234
3015.94127.503
3115.70826.831
3215.54726.143
3315.33725.597
3415.13425.056
3514.95824.309
3614.75323.708
3714.54223.105
3814.39722.540
3914.23922.074
4014.06321.458
4113.90120.861
4213.74720.417
4313.57020.041
4413.37219.525
4513.19119.059
4613.05618.537
4712.86618.062
4812.71317.442
4912.51816.971
5012.36116.463
5112.21816.002
5212.02515.541
5311.90015.003
5411.73914.489
5511.60513.970
5611.47013.344
5711.34112.976
5811.21812.605
5911.10312.202
6010.97911.676
6110.84711.157
6210.70310.782
6310.55910.435
6410.39010.013
6510.2659.689
6610.1079.361
679.9649.059
689.7838.669
699.6548.276
709.5037.997
719.3617.622
729.2217.327
739.0586.988
748.9396.690
758.7486.367
768.6006.084
778.4305.783
788.2655.511
798.0875.257
807.9704.933
817.7804.637
827.5934.364
837.4574.064
847.2563.822
857.0453.617
866.8723.351
876.7333.088
886.5452.884
896.3022.648
906.0782.398
915.8752.176
925.6721.927
935.4631.679
945.2421.399
954.9591.214
964.6201.016
974.2140.756
983.7410.559
993.1490.361


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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