Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.1104.145
Median5.1839.162
Mean6.40213.302
75% Quartile8.43818.336
Interquartile Range5.32814.191

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
123.82559.720
220.48250.148
317.93946.446
416.54143.434
515.40641.225
614.60838.187
713.89036.078
813.27334.130
912.85832.211
1012.44930.786
1112.00429.615
1211.61728.335
1311.25627.374
1410.89226.419
1510.61025.380
1610.37624.563
1710.08223.619
189.79222.669
199.54621.843
209.29921.199
219.10020.583
228.91619.904
238.75519.434
248.58318.757
258.43818.337
268.26117.978
278.08917.436
287.88717.011
297.69816.521
307.55915.989
317.41415.509
327.27715.027
337.13214.651
347.00814.284
356.84313.787
366.70013.395
376.54613.008
386.44112.652
396.32112.363
406.18011.987
416.06311.628
425.96311.365
435.86111.146
445.78610.847
455.65210.582
465.55910.288
475.49310.025
485.3989.686
495.2759.433
505.1839.162
515.1218.919
525.0158.679
534.9248.401
544.8368.139
554.7377.877
564.6397.564
574.5567.381
584.4867.199
594.3917.001
604.3276.744
614.2436.491
624.1576.310
634.0626.142
643.9805.938
653.9065.781
663.8335.622
673.7495.476
683.6835.287
693.6005.095
703.5204.959
713.4374.774
723.3694.628
733.2784.459
743.2044.309
753.1104.145
763.0324.000
772.9643.844
782.8803.702
792.8013.567
802.7153.392
812.6273.230
822.5343.078
832.4612.908
842.3562.767
852.2512.646
862.1772.486
872.0832.322
882.0002.193
891.9072.039
901.7991.870
911.6671.715
921.5651.535
931.4281.346
941.2511.121
951.1100.962
960.9480.783
970.7200.527
980.5280.311
990.2070.065


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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