Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Probability distribution for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile13.936
Median26.873
Mean41.141
75% Quartile51.603
Interquartile Range37.666

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1224.419
2174.518
3156.611
4142.706
5132.909
6120.014
7111.463
8103.855
996.628
1091.433
1187.271
1282.831
1379.567
1476.386
1572.989
1670.366
1767.385
1864.437
1961.914
2059.974
2158.137
2256.138
2354.767
2452.807
2551.603
2650.581
2749.049
2847.854
2946.489
3045.016
3143.694
3242.377
3341.354
3440.362
3539.023
3637.973
3736.942
3835.996
3935.230
4034.238
4133.294
4232.604
4332.029
4431.250
4530.558
4629.794
4729.110
4828.230
4927.573
5026.873
5126.246
5225.626
5324.910
5424.235
5523.560
5622.755
5722.285
5821.816
5921.306
6020.646
6119.997
6219.529
6319.097
6418.572
6518.168
6617.759
6717.381
6816.893
6916.398
7016.045
7115.568
7215.190
7314.750
7414.362
7513.936
7613.559
7713.152
7812.780
7912.428
8011.970
8111.545
8211.145
8310.695
8410.323
8510.003
869.576
879.141
888.794
898.382
907.928
917.509
927.020
936.505
945.887
955.448
964.948
974.228
983.613
992.903


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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