Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1989) (GL)
Apr5.4341.6900.0432.14929.167
Apr-May11.6234.2640.8534.89352.994
Apr-Jun22.99913.8811.9698.973111.867

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1040.717
2027.543
3021.252
4016.652
5013.433
6010.635
708.526
806.588
904.586

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1105.424
278.664
369.840
463.333
558.715
653.044
749.318
846.008
942.918
1040.717
1138.965
1237.112
1335.741
1434.394
1532.973
1631.889
1730.632
1829.394
1928.346
2027.543
2126.779
2225.914
2325.369
2424.539
2524.041
2623.614
2722.953
2822.441
2921.883
3021.252
3120.699
3220.125
3319.691
3419.288
3518.702
3618.263
3717.817
3817.416
3917.081
4016.652
4116.242
4215.947
4315.692
4415.356
4515.056
4614.715
4714.423
4814.036
4913.741
5013.433
5113.156
5212.886
5312.557
5412.266
5511.947
5611.599
5711.386
5811.171
5910.944
6010.635
6110.346
6210.135
639.935
649.699
659.513
669.324
679.149
688.922
698.691
708.526
718.302
728.125
737.917
747.733
757.531
767.351
777.157
786.979
796.809
806.588
816.382
826.187
835.967
845.783
855.625
865.414
875.197
885.023
894.815
904.586
914.372
924.121
933.854
943.530
953.298
963.030
972.639
982.298
991.896


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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