Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Aug30.67715.8312.31714.73682.188
Aug-Sep56.54431.7343.97926.495165.094
Aug-Oct81.07737.0504.42940.013337.708

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10133.364177.544
20102.767132.453
3082.736104.176
4068.49979.702
5055.99560.865
6047.13744.032
7037.96131.622
8029.15221.182
9020.23911.891

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1237.436294.000
2207.065256.848
3190.703242.265
4178.900230.262
5166.351221.359
6157.872208.948
7150.980200.195
8144.044191.984
9138.121183.755
10133.364177.544
11129.788172.366
12126.163166.623
13122.620162.245
14119.515157.836
15116.032152.966
16113.289149.080
17109.973144.520
18107.599139.850
19105.029135.720
20102.767132.453
21100.358129.285
2297.911125.747
2395.886123.265
2493.571119.638
2591.777117.359
2689.929115.394
2788.070112.395
2885.814110.010
2984.350107.234
3082.736104.176
3181.482101.376
3280.20198.531
3378.62196.285
3477.18994.072
3575.81691.037
3674.27688.614
3772.52086.201
3871.06783.955
3969.66082.115
4068.49979.702
4167.21777.378
4265.45875.662
4364.16474.221
4462.92272.250
4561.82770.485
4660.69568.519
4759.50566.746
4858.29964.447
4956.96862.719
5055.99560.865
5155.01959.195
5254.02857.536
5353.17255.613
5452.45953.792
5551.29851.964
5650.40849.777
5749.68348.499
5849.04747.220
5947.95245.831
6047.13744.032
6145.93042.264
6245.03840.992
6344.17139.818
6443.26938.396
6542.33637.304
6641.53436.202
6740.74935.185
6839.78733.878
6938.93632.558
7037.96131.622
7137.33030.362
7236.56829.369
7335.64628.222
7434.60127.215
7533.71726.118
7632.87225.156
7731.93624.125
7830.79923.190
7929.99922.311
8029.15221.182
8128.09320.144
8227.33219.179
8326.55518.109
8425.60217.234
8524.84316.491
8623.97115.513
8723.05514.532
8822.05713.762
8921.14812.861
9020.23911.891
9119.14911.013
9217.93110.013
9316.7298.989
9415.5617.802
9514.3776.990
9612.7516.098
9711.1544.875
989.3353.900
996.8792.856


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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