Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1992) (GL)
Sep25.86715.9031.66211.75959.402
Sep-Oct50.40021.2192.11125.277147.832
Sep-Nov60.90123.8512.31533.332179.353

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1082.462114.193
2062.12187.021
3050.72469.631
4040.99054.133
5034.15941.762
6028.25630.303
7022.72621.633
8017.03314.272
9011.0767.782

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1148.481183.536
2130.990161.453
3117.324152.780
4108.427145.639
5103.011140.339
696.589132.945
791.852127.726
888.488122.826
985.318117.909
1082.462114.193
1179.768111.092
1276.994107.648
1374.993105.019
1472.660102.369
1570.77799.437
1668.48197.094
1766.98094.339
1864.89791.513
1963.39889.007
2062.12187.021
2160.69085.091
2259.27082.932
2358.08881.414
2457.08679.190
2556.06577.790
2655.04576.580
2753.90074.730
2852.86673.255
2951.81771.534
3050.72469.631
3149.63767.884
3248.39966.102
3347.58564.691
3446.45263.297
3545.53261.378
3644.42959.841
3743.59658.303
3842.78856.867
3941.94555.686
4040.99054.133
4140.21552.630
4239.49251.517
4338.89050.579
4438.09849.292
4537.35848.136
4636.66746.844
4736.01245.673
4835.30944.150
4934.62143.000
5034.15941.762
5133.49840.642
5232.98839.527
5332.52338.228
5431.81036.995
5530.99435.751
5630.49334.257
5729.91733.381
5829.21732.503
5928.72231.546
6028.25630.303
6127.71329.078
6227.19128.194
6326.58427.376
6426.10026.384
6525.52225.621
6624.98024.849
6724.30724.137
6823.72923.220
6923.11422.292
7022.72621.633
7122.12520.746
7221.49020.046
7320.98519.238
7420.51718.527
7519.86017.753
7619.22217.074
7718.71516.347
7818.18515.688
7917.75915.068
8017.03314.272
8116.47413.542
8215.87212.864
8315.36412.113
8414.76611.499
8514.09710.979
8613.52010.296
8712.9609.612
8812.3199.077
8911.6518.453
9011.0767.782
9110.4857.177
929.7636.491
939.1015.793
948.3944.988
957.5974.441
966.6093.844
975.5413.035
984.4652.397
992.8511.724


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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