Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1992) (GL)
Oct25.21010.5466.5520.45013.69888.430
Oct-Nov35.97220.66711.6140.65421.741119.951
Oct-Dec42.82131.62714.3760.65424.701141.529

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.79081.234
2020.07458.763
3017.17745.118
4014.93633.776
5013.18425.413
6011.47918.205
709.86713.013
808.2328.681
906.2834.805

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.362140.519
235.935121.542
333.449114.101
431.197107.982
529.686103.448
628.36997.137
727.24692.693
826.36988.531
925.51584.369
1024.79081.234
1123.92878.627
1223.38375.740
1323.01673.545
1422.51671.339
1522.09868.909
1621.72266.975
1721.31764.712
1820.95962.403
1920.58060.368
2020.07458.763
2119.75757.212
2219.39855.485
2319.11054.278
2418.89052.520
2518.62851.419
2618.30650.472
2718.07349.033
2817.80547.892
2917.53346.569
3017.17745.118
3116.93843.795
3216.70842.458
3316.50841.406
3416.30940.374
3516.02938.966
3615.79937.847
3715.55836.737
3815.34035.710
3915.16134.871
4014.93633.776
4114.74832.726
4214.57931.954
4314.35031.308
4414.16330.428
4514.02829.642
4613.81728.771
4713.64227.988
4813.46926.978
4913.31726.221
5013.18425.413
5113.05224.687
5212.87623.969
5312.69123.139
5412.52622.356
5512.34521.573
5612.16820.639
5712.01020.096
5811.84019.553
5911.65618.965
6011.47918.205
6111.31617.460
6211.14816.925
6310.97816.433
6410.83415.837
6510.66615.381
6610.51414.920
6710.32314.496
6810.17413.952
6910.04913.402
709.86713.013
719.71512.489
729.55612.077
739.37411.601
749.18611.183
759.01710.728
768.85210.329
778.7149.902
788.5629.514
798.4099.149
808.2328.681
818.0578.250
827.8837.849
837.7237.404
847.5307.040
857.3746.730
867.1656.322
876.9455.912
886.6885.590
896.4955.213
906.2834.805
916.0654.435
925.8044.013
935.5343.579
945.1983.073
954.8022.726
964.4812.343
974.0521.814
983.6161.388
992.9060.928


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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