Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


Return to catchment list
Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1992) (GL)
Nov10.76210.1215.0630.2048.04431.522
Nov-Dec17.61221.0817.8240.20411.00453.100
Nov-Jan21.85924.6619.4880.20412.58161.636

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.71544.271
2012.81234.113
3010.91527.503
409.51521.458
508.24316.463
607.20611.676
706.1537.997
805.0484.933
903.7382.398

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
126.26669.963
222.48861.792
320.76358.581
419.61355.936
518.68653.973
618.01451.233
717.26249.297
816.68747.478
916.14845.652
1015.71544.271
1115.33343.117
1214.99041.835
1314.64340.855
1414.31939.866
1514.09838.770
1613.77637.894
1713.49436.862
1813.21635.802
1913.00034.860
2012.81234.113
2112.59633.385
2212.33132.570
2312.13631.996
2411.93631.153
2511.72030.621
2611.53630.161
2711.34129.456
2811.21828.892
2911.01928.234
3010.91527.503
3110.74126.831
3210.58526.143
3310.43925.597
3410.30825.056
3510.14724.309
3610.00123.708
379.87123.105
389.73222.540
399.63322.074
409.51521.458
419.36620.861
429.25620.417
439.13820.041
449.02419.525
458.89319.059
468.77518.537
478.63718.062
488.50617.442
498.37216.971
508.24316.463
518.15916.002
528.04115.541
537.95315.003
547.85714.489
557.75013.970
567.63913.344
577.53812.976
587.43112.605
597.32712.202
607.20611.676
617.10911.157
627.00210.782
636.90810.435
646.82110.013
656.7169.689
666.5939.361
676.4939.059
686.3728.669
696.2588.276
706.1537.997
716.0647.622
725.9647.327
735.8636.988
745.7626.690
755.6676.367
765.5556.084
775.4115.783
785.2975.511
795.1675.257
805.0484.933
814.8954.637
824.7834.364
834.6804.064
844.5553.822
854.4193.617
864.3083.351
874.1753.088
884.0562.884
893.9002.648
903.7382.398
913.5712.176
923.4001.927
933.2581.679
943.1091.399
952.9271.214
962.6941.016
972.3780.756
982.0820.559
991.6410.361


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence