Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jul24.15818.3199.9302.6278.150113.323
Jul-Aug55.12135.54725.7614.94522.979228.368
Jul-Sep81.18744.93841.6646.60734.093264.766

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10149.486174.517
20113.781130.721
3091.609103.367
4075.53579.752
5062.48261.559
6052.25545.197
7042.28932.987
8032.40322.539
9022.52613.016

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1270.102288.080
2233.738251.821
3208.734237.593
4196.431225.884
5187.933217.203
6177.166205.104
7168.090196.574
8159.799188.575
9154.049180.562
10149.486174.517
11144.821169.479
12140.458163.894
13136.928159.637
14133.243155.353
15128.400150.622
16124.661146.849
17122.128142.423
18119.391137.893
19116.956133.888
20113.781130.721
21111.284127.652
22109.147124.225
23107.096121.823
24103.723118.313
25101.657116.108
2699.446114.208
2797.070111.309
2895.350109.003
2993.448106.321
3091.609103.367
3189.826100.663
3287.74297.917
3385.97595.749
3484.39893.613
3582.87090.685
3681.22888.349
3780.00586.021
3877.97883.854
3976.94982.079
4075.53579.752
4174.35577.510
4272.76475.854
4371.33074.464
4469.93272.561
4568.88770.857
4667.44268.959
4766.37967.246
4865.32565.024
4963.99163.353
5062.48261.559
5161.50659.941
5260.09358.334
5359.28756.470
5458.67254.703
5557.28352.927
5656.27850.800
5755.18449.556
5854.23148.310
5953.26146.955
6052.25545.197
6151.04543.468
6249.85442.221
6348.97941.070
6448.04739.673
6546.98238.599
6645.84537.514
6745.14236.511
6843.96135.221
6943.21333.914
7042.28932.987
7141.13331.736
7239.92330.749
7338.74329.607
7437.93828.602
7536.87227.505
7635.95626.540
7735.02525.506
7834.11124.566
7933.19923.679
8032.40322.539
8131.42221.488
8230.52120.508
8329.41019.419
8428.44518.526
8527.28017.765
8626.34216.762
8725.31415.752
8824.40614.957
8923.54214.025
9022.52613.016
9121.18112.100
9219.78211.052
9318.4889.974
9417.0418.716
9515.8917.851
9614.4536.893
9712.8045.571
9810.9824.504
998.3993.348


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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