Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jun11.3769.6176.6512.1054.08132.388
Jun-Jul35.28019.54720.3794.73212.642145.712
Jun-Aug65.95735.37824.9677.05027.378260.757

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1078.719148.302
2058.770102.730
3046.79077.755
4037.96758.571
5031.36845.116
6026.02533.716
7021.25225.409
8016.40018.235
9011.24911.405

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1154.954282.770
2130.472238.620
3119.027221.485
4110.368207.504
5101.650197.224
694.932183.051
789.820173.186
885.030164.050
981.813155.021
1078.719148.302
1175.578142.771
1273.328136.715
1370.886132.157
1468.995127.624
1567.046122.683
1665.096118.795
1763.422114.294
1861.930109.759
1960.221105.810
2058.770102.730
2157.52099.781
2256.28496.531
2354.80094.280
2452.97191.032
2551.95889.017
2651.01187.295
2749.86584.698
2848.75382.656
2947.70580.308
3046.79077.755
3145.87575.448
3244.81373.136
3343.74371.331
3442.83669.572
3542.06367.188
3641.36265.309
3740.37063.458
3839.62961.753
3938.66160.369
4037.96758.571
4137.29556.856
4236.55655.601
4335.96054.554
4435.25753.131
4534.66251.867
4633.98450.469
4733.28649.216
4832.53647.603
4932.07846.400
5031.36845.116
5130.90143.965
5230.32942.827
5329.77441.515
5429.32540.278
5528.73739.041
5628.28137.566
5727.78936.708
5827.20535.850
5926.57734.919
6026.02533.716
6125.57732.535
6225.04131.685
6324.60130.901
6424.13229.952
6523.60129.222
6623.15428.485
6722.65527.804
6822.09126.927
6921.64726.040
7021.25225.409
7120.79924.558
7220.30823.885
7319.76623.106
7419.36422.419
7518.91921.667
7618.38521.005
7717.90620.292
7817.37019.643
7916.93219.028
8016.40018.235
8115.94217.501
8215.47916.813
8315.00516.043
8414.58015.409
8513.99214.866
8613.46314.146
8712.86313.416
8812.29812.837
8911.82512.152
9011.24911.405
9110.67110.720
9210.0619.927
939.3589.099
948.6978.117
958.0247.430
967.1596.656
976.2195.559
985.3684.645
994.1733.615


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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