Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Jan4.2210.0410.0920.0001.5902.352
Jan-Feb6.9860.0410.4830.0002.9898.422
Jan-Mar12.0160.04124.6710.0003.83179.141

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.38424.988
206.27316.287
304.69912.162
403.5419.153
502.6257.050
601.9255.224
701.2703.849
800.6142.585
900.0001.279

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
122.63670.133
217.58750.826
314.90544.684
413.63540.212
512.64737.067
611.88933.232
711.00630.727
810.36028.512
99.78726.451
109.38424.988
118.91223.825
128.55522.597
138.25321.690
147.81820.800
157.48319.862
167.21819.148
176.91718.319
186.68217.504
196.45216.815
206.27316.287
216.07315.785
225.86615.217
235.73514.860
245.56814.316
255.39113.989
265.24113.709
275.08413.276
284.92812.940
294.81312.575
304.69912.162
314.57911.800
324.44411.424
334.30111.140
344.17410.876
354.05810.493
363.95410.206
373.8449.914
383.7399.652
393.6359.433
403.5419.153
413.4608.885
423.3558.692
433.2698.526
443.1868.306
453.0938.110
462.9977.887
472.9057.697
482.8017.444
492.7167.251
502.6257.050
512.5566.869
522.4846.693
532.4036.479
542.3276.289
552.2766.081
562.2065.853
572.1375.715
582.0725.574
591.9935.426
601.9255.224
611.8525.036
621.7954.898
631.7334.768
641.6574.614
651.5964.492
661.5464.369
671.4704.255
681.4064.107
691.3453.956
701.2703.849
711.2113.703
721.1443.587
731.0743.452
741.0063.332
750.9423.200
760.8743.083
770.8262.956
780.7642.840
790.6852.729
800.6142.585
810.5542.450
820.4932.323
830.4142.180
840.3612.060
850.2931.957
860.2211.819
870.1381.678
880.0651.564
890.0001.429
900.0001.279
910.0001.139
920.0000.976
930.0000.802
940.0000.590
950.0000.439
960.0000.264
970.0000.009
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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