Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Old Borambola ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Jan4.1330.0928.4020.0000.8342.352
Jan-Feb6.8510.48330.8690.0002.0068.422
Jan-Mar12.24224.67142.2660.0005.01379.141

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.988
2016.287
3012.162
409.153
507.050
605.224
703.849
802.585
901.279

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
170.133
250.826
344.684
440.212
537.067
633.232
730.727
828.512
926.451
1024.988
1123.825
1222.597
1321.690
1420.800
1519.862
1619.148
1718.319
1817.504
1916.815
2016.287
2115.785
2215.217
2314.860
2414.316
2513.989
2613.709
2713.276
2812.940
2912.575
3012.162
3111.800
3211.424
3311.140
3410.876
3510.493
3610.206
379.914
389.652
399.433
409.153
418.885
428.692
438.526
448.306
458.110
467.887
477.697
487.444
497.251
507.050
516.869
526.693
536.479
546.289
556.081
565.853
575.715
585.574
595.426
605.224
615.036
624.898
634.768
644.614
654.492
664.369
674.255
684.107
693.956
703.849
713.703
723.587
733.452
743.332
753.200
763.083
772.956
782.840
792.729
802.585
812.450
822.323
832.180
842.060
851.957
861.819
871.678
881.564
891.429
901.279
911.139
920.976
930.802
940.590
950.439
960.264
970.009
980.000
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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