Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Product list for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1026.11841.225
2017.01327.615
3011.71418.750
408.09410.943
505.6075.621
603.7322.358
702.4020.966
801.2850.316
900.5190.031

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
153.46275.534
245.14464.626
340.46760.340
437.70556.809
534.23954.188
632.58950.528
730.28347.942
828.67145.513
927.33243.072
1026.11841.225
1125.12539.682
1224.08637.966
1323.06236.654
1422.21535.330
1521.11533.863
1620.44932.688
1719.46631.305
1818.71029.883
1917.67928.619
2017.01327.615
2116.17926.638
2215.62425.543
2315.08324.771
2414.49023.639
2514.04422.925
2613.67222.307
2713.32021.361
2812.69920.606
2912.25419.725
3011.71418.750
3111.20517.854
3210.81216.942
3310.51416.221
3410.06915.510
359.69014.536
369.32113.760
379.02912.990
388.77112.277
398.41211.697
408.09410.943
417.84610.226
427.5979.705
437.2699.272
446.9908.690
456.6548.179
466.4107.623
476.2177.135
486.0456.523
495.8356.080
505.6075.621
515.3925.223
525.1754.844
535.0054.424
544.7894.046
554.5973.687
564.4233.284
574.2293.061
584.0632.848
593.9012.628
603.7322.358
613.5172.112
623.3701.945
633.2581.798
643.1571.631
653.0161.509
662.8691.392
672.7581.289
682.6411.164
692.5271.046
702.4020.966
712.2670.866
722.1610.791
732.0220.709
741.9000.642
751.7990.573
761.6780.516
771.5710.459
781.4550.411
791.3630.368
801.2850.316
811.2060.272
821.1080.234
831.0250.195
840.9430.166
850.8700.143
860.8090.115
870.7350.089
880.6700.071
890.5910.051
900.5190.031
910.4510.016
920.3710.000
930.3080.000
940.2080.000
950.1290.000
960.0640.000
970.0010.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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