Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


Return to catchment list
Product list for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.93128.722
2010.94714.954
307.4447.095
405.0302.709
503.4431.074
602.3600.387
701.5730.144
800.9070.043
900.4360.005

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
132.85363.884
229.32052.703
325.94348.310
423.72944.690
522.25842.003
620.77738.252
719.62435.603
818.84933.113
917.96030.613
1016.93128.722
1116.06327.143
1215.23925.389
1314.52924.050
1413.92922.701
1513.44521.209
1612.94420.018
1712.39418.623
1811.83517.197
1911.31915.941
2010.94714.954
2110.37414.003
229.96812.953
239.64612.225
249.30211.179
258.97210.534
268.6349.988
278.3749.174
288.0638.546
297.7777.840
307.4447.095
317.2116.448
326.8065.827
336.5895.364
346.3344.932
356.1144.379
365.8673.971
375.6993.592
385.4493.265
395.2563.015
405.0302.709
414.8482.439
424.6712.253
434.4852.106
444.3081.918
454.1041.760
463.9471.598
473.7891.462
483.6771.299
493.5401.186
503.4431.074
513.3140.981
523.1710.894
533.0750.801
542.9790.721
552.8490.646
562.7360.564
572.6350.520
582.5440.479
592.4460.437
602.3600.387
612.2660.341
622.1830.311
632.1100.285
642.0340.256
651.9500.234
661.8770.214
671.8080.197
681.7290.176
691.6470.156
701.5730.144
711.4850.127
721.4100.115
731.3530.102
741.2860.092
751.2220.081
761.1500.073
771.0790.064
781.0240.057
790.9620.051
800.9070.043
810.8480.037
820.7990.032
830.7550.026
840.7110.022
850.6590.019
860.6090.015
870.5520.012
880.5120.010
890.4780.007
900.4360.005
910.3930.003
920.3400.001
930.2990.000
940.2680.000
950.2260.000
960.1950.000
970.1460.000
980.0980.000
990.0420.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence