Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Product list for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith



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Exceedance probability for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith ( Jan  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.390
201.596
300.689
400.309
500.150
600.065
700.026
800.005
900.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.129
221.990
318.425
415.590
513.483
610.831
79.094
87.596
96.271
105.390
114.732
124.084
133.639
143.230
152.830
162.547
172.242
181.966
191.750
201.596
211.458
221.311
231.224
241.100
251.029
260.971
270.885
280.823
290.758
300.689
310.632
320.577
330.537
340.502
350.454
360.419
370.387
380.359
390.336
400.309
410.284
420.267
430.253
440.236
450.221
460.204
470.191
480.174
490.162
500.150
510.139
520.130
530.118
540.109
550.099
560.089
570.083
580.078
590.072
600.065
610.058
620.054
630.050
640.045
650.042
660.039
670.036
680.032
690.029
700.026
710.023
720.021
730.018
740.016
750.014
760.012
770.010
780.009
790.007
800.005
810.004
820.002
830.001
840.000
850.000
860.000
870.000
880.000
890.000
900.000
910.000
920.000
930.000
940.000
950.000
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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