Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Product list for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Probability distribution for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.470
Median3.469
Mean12.699
75% Quartile17.784
Interquartile Range17.314

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
183.460
269.646
364.219
459.748
556.429
651.798
748.527
845.455
942.373
1040.045
1138.103
1235.947
1334.304
1432.650
1530.824
1629.369
1727.667
1825.929
1924.401
2023.199
2122.041
2220.759
2319.869
2418.582
2517.784
2617.104
2716.081
2815.282
2914.370
3013.391
3112.520
3211.662
3311.005
3410.377
359.548
368.914
378.307
387.765
397.338
406.801
416.308
425.959
435.676
445.304
454.985
464.645
474.352
483.991
493.733
503.469
513.242
523.027
532.789
542.576
552.373
562.143
572.016
581.893
591.765
601.608
611.461
621.361
631.272
641.169
651.093
661.020
670.954
680.874
690.796
700.743
710.675
720.624
730.567
740.520
750.470
760.428
770.386
780.349
790.316
800.275
810.240
820.209
830.176
840.151
850.131
860.106
870.082
880.064
890.045
900.026
910.010
920.000
930.000
940.000
950.000
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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