Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Product list for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith


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Probability distribution for Kyeamba Creek at Ladysmith(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.0000.076
Median0.0610.384
Mean0.2781.545
75% Quartile0.2921.292
Interquartile Range0.2921.216

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12.94421.606
22.18012.535
31.66810.012
41.4528.318
51.2227.204
61.0905.939
70.9765.170
80.8884.529
90.8123.967
100.7513.587
110.6933.298
120.6413.004
130.5852.795
140.5442.596
150.5092.393
160.4752.244
170.4442.076
180.4151.916
190.3921.786
200.3701.688
210.3511.598
220.3351.498
230.3221.437
240.3061.346
250.2921.293
260.2781.248
270.2611.179
280.2501.127
290.2371.072
300.2251.011
310.2150.959
320.2060.906
330.1930.867
340.1840.831
350.1730.780
360.1620.743
370.1530.706
380.1450.673
390.1360.646
400.1280.613
410.1200.581
420.1120.559
430.1030.540
440.0960.516
450.0900.494
460.0840.470
470.0780.450
480.0720.424
490.0670.404
500.0610.384
510.0550.366
520.0500.349
530.0460.329
540.0420.311
550.0370.293
560.0320.273
570.0280.261
580.0240.249
590.0200.236
600.0160.220
610.0120.204
620.0080.194
630.0040.184
640.0010.172
650.0000.163
660.0000.154
670.0000.146
680.0000.135
690.0000.125
700.0000.118
710.0000.108
720.0000.100
730.0000.092
740.0000.084
750.0000.076
760.0000.069
770.0000.062
780.0000.055
790.0000.049
800.0000.041
810.0000.034
820.0000.027
830.0000.020
840.0000.014
850.0000.009
860.0000.003
870.0000.000
880.0000.000
890.0000.000
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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